BOOK REVIEW: Frank Dillonreviews Future Files - The five trends that will shape the next 50 yearsby Richard Watson
RICHARD WATSON makes a living advising corporations on the future. A pretty depressing job if you were briefing firms at the moment.
His methodology involves collecting vast amounts of information from news and media organisations around the world and parsing the detail to reveal significant patterns. From this he develops a scenario framework to tell us how the world might look in 50 years time.
Predicting the future is, by his own admission, educated guesswork, but as he notes, parts of the future are embedded in the present - if only as a riddle. His book therefore is as much about analysing the speed and robustness of trends that are already emerging to distinguish between short-term fads and long-term shifts.
The five areas mentioned in the subtitle are: ageing, global connectivity, GRIN technologies (Genetics, Robotics, Internet and Nanotechnology) the environment and a power shift eastwards. The book also ranges over how society and attitudes will change.
A recurring theme is polarisation. While globalisation will increase through increased connectivity and mobility so will localisation as a counter force.
Watson suggests that the EU could splinter and ultimately collapse and that a new tribalism will drive city states, locally tailored products, economic protectionism and the sales of flags. Resource shortages, especially oil, will mean that economic production will be forced to localise due to the cost of transport.
Some people will embrace technology while others will reject it. The economic middle class will disappear in most developed countries with people moving upwards into a new global managerial elite or downwards into a new enslaved working class.
Anxiety will increase, trust in institutions will evaporate and the speed of change will leave people longing for the past, the author suggests. A growing feeling of powerlessness will fuel everything from an interest in nostalgia and escapism to a growth in narcissism, localisation and religion.
A back-to-the-future scenario is envisaged in financial services with a growth in community-based banking with an increased emphasis on personal service.
Mortgage terms will stretch even further with the rise of the Extended Financial Family (EFF) with grandparents, parents and children all living under one roof. The concept of inheritance will disappear as parents will be forced to subsidise their adult children with loan repayments.
It's not all bad, however. Watson even sees an up-side to the inevitable rise in oil prices. Fewer cars on the road will result in less obesity and less consumerism. This may trigger a sense of mend and make-do that will rejuvenate local communities and national self-esteem.
Biofuel technologies, hydrogen power, starch-based plastics and home-based micro-generation will all be in widespread. Even the landfill problem will be resolved, he suggests, when someone realises that there's money to be made by digging up old refuse sites and converting used plastic bags and bottles into fuel.
Advertising will become more short-term and promotionally focused while brand image will concentrate on product design and service experience. There will be a surge in location-based advertising, reaching people at point-of-sale. For example, ads for soft drinks will "magically" appear on your phone as you walk past a vending machine on a hot day.
When you visit a supermarket, products will recognise you if you touch them. Pick up a bottle of Heinz ketchup and you may be pegged as a frequent Heinz buyer and be offered a voucher rewarding your past loyalty. The bottle may even know how much sauce you have at home and remind you when to stock up, thanks to wireless links to cupboards and fridges.
Consumers will make their own minds up about this invasion of privacy with some happy to trade their personal information for a fistful of coupons, Watson suggests.
Watson predicts that the while the democratisation of media and citizen journalism trends, such as blogging, will continue, the very ubiquity and blandness of amateur digital media is its limitation. Physical media, especially books, magazines and newspapers, edited and designed by professionals, therefore have a future, especially if they adapt to embrace complimentary delivery platforms.
The book is at its most interesting when Watson makes specific predictions for how everyday objects will change.
Take cars, for example. By 2050, Watson says that most of the panels in cars will be constructed from biodegradable material made from the starch found in rice and potatoes. The panels will be made using nanotechnology and will remember their shape so dents will fix themselves. You will be able to set the colour of your car to change, depending on your mood.
Other innovations we can expect by 2050 include human memory downloads and mindwipes, stress control clothing, robocops, a global currency and self-cleaning houses.
Surprisingly, Watson is broadly optimistic that the future will be a brighter place. The biggest uncertainty or risk factor, he says, will be technology. Technology will solve climate change and resource shortage although the downside, he believes, is that we swap these for a new set of fears and anxieties.
• Frank Dillon is a freelance journalist
• Future Files - The five trends that will shape the next 50 years by Richard Watson; Nicolas Brealey Publishing; £12.99 (€17)
