Aryzta reports results and Construction Summit hits town

MONDAY

Indicators: Irish construction PMI (Feb); German industrial production (Jan), exports and imports (Jan); US consumer inflation expectations (Feb).

TUESDAY

Results: Aryzta, Cairn Energy, Domino's Pizza, Forterra, Geberit.

Indicators: UK construction orders (Q4) construction output (Jan), industrial production (Jan), manufacturing production (Jan) GDP (Jan); US business optimism index (Feb), inflation (Feb).

Aryzta reports half-year results

Aryzta, the beleaguered Irish-Swiss baking group, reports half-year results on Tuesday against a backdrop of ongoing questions about the company’s ability to pull itself out of the mire.

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It has undergone years of poor earnings and a near complete wipe-out of shareholder value. Last May, it issued yet another profit warning, further dampening investor sentiment.

Early last month, its shares dipped again when Credit Suisse issued an underperform recommendation, suggesting debt levels were still a cause for concern.

At the same time, chief executive Kevin Toland said the company was on the right track again, courtesy of a successful €790 million capital raise in November, a €200 million cost-cutting programme, and a return to its traditional frozen bakery business.

In mid-February, Davy said that excluding exceptional costs, Aryzta was likely to be modestly loss-making on a statutory basis in full year 2019.

“Our 2019 to 2021 forecasts hinge on the successful execution of Project Renew – we model total incremental savings of €79 million by 2021 with Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) and margins of 11 per cent,” it said in a note. “The pinch point for delivery is full year 2020, when 45 per cent of total incremental savings are forecast to accrue.”

WEDNESDAY

Results: Provident Financial.

Indicators: Irish tourism and travel (Q4), trade statistics (Dec); Euro zone industrial production (Jan); US PPI (Feb).

Meetings: UK chancellor Philip Hammond's Spring economic statement (House of Commons); Chartered Accountants Ireland seminar on Diversity in the Boardroom; Executive Institute Content Marketing event (National Concert Hall, Dublin 2); PM Summit for project managers (Convention Centre Dublin); Dublin Chamber Leaders Series talk with Eir chief executive Carolan Lennon (Dublin Chamber, Clare Street, Dublin 2).

THURSDAY

Results: Adobe.

Indicators: Irish GDP and GNP (Q4), inflation (Feb), residential property prices (Jan); German inflation (Feb); US retail sales (Feb), imports and exports (Feb).

Meetings: National Construction Summit (Citywest Hotel, Saggart, Co Dublin); National Recruitment Federation annual conference (Clayton Hotel, Dublin 4); Alltech Craft Brews and Food Fair (Convention Centre Dublin).

Brexit on National Construction Summit agenda

Less than two week’s out from the UK’s (current) departure date from the EU, the National Construction Summit will help draw a greater understanding of just how reliant the industry is on the British economy.

Despite a drop in trade since the vote two years ago, recent figures have shown that 80 per cent of timber exports from Ireland are destined for the UK. According to the Central Statistics Office, 3,400 Irish firms export exclusively to the UK.

On Thursday, more than 5,000 construction industry professionals will gather in the Citywest Hotel in Saggart to worry about what might be coming down the line, a discussion that will no doubt remain underscored by blind uncertainty.

"Brexit remains a serious concern for the sector as it goes down to the wire," said organiser Colin Murphy ahead of the event. "Many small construction firms in Ireland have strong links with the UK and any disruption caused by a hard Brexit could have serious consequences."

Irish construction has been performing well and is expected to grow by 20 per cent this year in a country starved of housing and commercial space.

Attendees on Thursday will include senior executives from across the industry in both Ireland and the UK, a perfect opportunity to pull things into focus ahead of whatever emerges in London and Brussels later this month.

Highlights will include talks from Metro Dublin chief executive Jed Van De Poll and Paul McKenna, chief executive of Mac-Group on rapid build modular housing.

FRIDAY

Indicators: Irish balance of trade (Jan), current account (Q4); Euro zone inflation (Feb); US manufacturing and industrial production (Feb).