Airlines across Europe are cutting prices for summer flights to counter a delay in bookings, as customers worry that jet fuel shortages will disrupt their holiday plans.
Carriers, travel agents and analysts said that consumers are holding off booking after repeated warnings about the potential need for rationing after the Iran conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz three months ago.
“We are sort of living in an era like we used to see during the pandemic,” Turkish Airlines chair Murat Şeker told investors. “There is still a lack of visibility for the long term.”
Since the first widespread warnings of jet fuel shortages at the start of April, prices have been dropping for flights to some of the most popular destinations in southern Europe, according to an analysis of the cheapest fares on Google Flights.
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Between April 9th – the day before European airports warned the region may run short of jet fuel – and May 6th, airfares for a weeklong trip in July declined for 27 of the top 50 European flight routes to the Mediterranean.
Prices dropped by 10 per cent or more for 15 routes, including from Heathrow to Nice, Manchester to Palma and Gatwick to Barcelona. Dublin to Malaga fell by around 15 per cent. They fell by as much as 44 per cent for flights between Milan and Madrid.
On routes where prices rose, the changes were less significant. Price falls of 20 per cent or more were recorded on eight of the top 50 routes, while only two routes saw price rises of the same magnitude.
As the industry enters its peak summer season, airlines and holiday companies are locked in a “confidence game” with consumers to persuade them to book, Barclays analyst Andrew Lobbenberg said.
While US travel is still booming, travellers in Europe were “freezing in the headlights”, Lobbenberg added. “People are reluctant to book, they are booking late and the airline and holiday companies are having to incentivise them with lower prices.”
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Ipsos found that one-fifth of surveyed UK consumers had switched from an international to a domestic holiday for this year, while another fifth are considering doing so.
Trivago chief executive Johannes Thomas said that the company had “not seen a cooling” in overall UK bookings, but it was noticeable that “in times of crisis ... people stay more domestic”.
The prices on many top European routes have been lowered even as some long-haul carriers have warned of price rises driven by higher fuel prices and pared-back schedules. Airlines have already cut 2mn seats globally from May schedules after jet fuel prices doubled, with some cuts made to preserve profits and others due to falling demand.
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“There is an element of uncertainty in the short term, people don’t know what is going to happen, am I going to lose my job, am I not able to fuel my car, there is a level of hesitancy,” said Wizz Air chief executive József Varadi.
“You can stimulate the demand but at a cost ... in the short term, you are actually seeing prices dropping.”
Like other airline bosses seeking to drum up bookings, he warned that waiting may lead to higher costs. “People should take the risk, as I’m better off booking now because by the time I get to summer maybe things will become a lot more expensive than today,” he said.
EasyJet, whose growth is pegged to the fortunes of its fast-growing holidays arm, has also tried to assuage consumer concerns, pledging this month not to add jet fuel or other surcharges to packages that are already booked.
“We understand that global events may affect travellers’ confidence at the moment but we believe that everyone has a right to book their flights and holidays with confidence,” said chief executive Kenton Jarvis.
Last month, the low-cost carrier said it was seeing people booking later, as it warned that higher fuel prices would hit its profitability.
“The booking window has shortened, which does reduce visibility, but what we’re also seeing is strong demand in the month of travel,” Jarvis said at the time.
British Airways this week also issued a “holidays promise” that flights would not rise in price after payments.
Even though Europe is less exposed than Asia to imports of kerosene from the Strait of Hormuz, the region is being fed by the US and supplies are still likely to run short if the waterway remains closed for months.
“Some countries – the UK in particular – could end up with extremely low inventories and it’s possible rationing measures would be put in place to slow inventory draw,” analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote. “Prices will impact demand and we are already seeing a low to mid single-digit reduction in jet fuel demand in Europe implied from the airline capacity cuts announced so far.”
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Governments across Europe have sought to assuage fears. The UK last weekend pledged to change take-off rules to prevent airlines running empty planes and give greater assurance to travellers. “We are not currently seeing disruption to jet fuel supplies,” transport secretary Heidi Alexander said. “But if we do, we’ve got your back.”
Lobbenberg at Barclays estimated that between 5 and 15 per cent of flights may be cancelled over the summer, largely depending on whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens fully.
Passengers who have already booked will probably be shifted on to uncancelled flights, while prices for remaining seats will rise significantly for those who have not, he said. In the end, the vast majority of flights will still operate, he predicted: “The skies won’t be empty.” – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2026
