Europe’s largest travel operator Tui has cut its profit outlook and suspended its revenue guidance, warning that a “volatile geopolitical backdrop” is fuelling consumer caution.
The Frankfurt-listed company, which runs cruises, flights and package holidays, said it expected full-year underlying operating profit for the year to September to be in the range of €1.1 billion to €1.4 billion, down from a previous expectation of about €1.5 billion to €1.6 billion.
Tui said that airline and hotel bookings for the summer were 7 per cent below the same period in 2025, as it warned that wary customers were increasingly booking at the last minute. Travellers were also favouring western Europe, as the war in Iran weighed on demand for destinations well beyond the immediate conflict zone, in Turkey, Cyprus and Egypt.
Tui was also suspending revenue guidance “until conditions stabilise”, the company said on Wednesday. The new profit guidance “assumes no material escalation in geopolitical tensions, and that fuel supplies can be maintained”, Tui added. Shares fell 2 per cent in morning trading.
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Two of the company’s cruise ships – which had been trapped in the ports of Abu Dhabi and Doha following the outbreak of the conflict – escaped through the Strait of Hormuz “during a pause in hostilities” on Sunday.
The company had earlier repatriated about 5,000 cruise passengers and said that the two ships were operating with a reduced staff when they passed through the Gulf “with the relevant co-ordination and approval from the authorities”.
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The vessels, Mein Schiff 4 and Mein Schiff 5, will resume their scheduled Mediterranean itineraries in mid-May. Tui said it was contacting customers whose holidays had been cancelled earlier.
Travel companies have been hit hard by the conflict. UK online travel agent On The Beach last month suspended its own full-year guidance due to the “unknown” duration and outcome of the conflict.
Several of the UK’s leading holiday companies, meanwhile, have predicted a boom in domestic tourism, as fears over rising fuel prices and travel delays due to the war in the Middle East put people off air travel. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2026
