Tesla’s recent robotaxi launch sparked a brief frenzy, sending shares more than 10 per cent higher and adding some $100 billion to its market value, before gains quickly evaporated.
One can see why the rally faded. After all, the debut was modest at best: a handful of Teslas operating with a human safety supervisor in the front passenger seat, limited to a geo-fenced area during specific hours, and only available to invite-only riders.
This cautious roll-out stands in sharp contrast to Elon Musk’s years of grand promises about fully autonomous robotaxis operating everywhere.
Compared with Google’s Waymo, which has been testing driverless fleets under strict supervision for years, Tesla’s launch looks more like a tentative experiment than a breakthrough.
Still, that some investors thought otherwise is not surprising. Ordinarily, stock price volatility eases as a company’s valuation grows, but not Tesla. Data from Bespoke Investment shows the only period when Tesla’s daily volatility was higher than now was during the early days of Covid.
Over the past year it has seen four separate rallies exceeding 20 per cent, and four declines each exceeding 20 per cent. These include a 150 per cent surge in late 2024 and a drop of more than 50 per cent earlier this year.
Since going public in 2010, Tesla has averaged 4.25 bull or bear cycles per year. “It’s already had five in 2025,” adds Bespoke.
Tesla’s volatility persists with almost stubborn consistency, defying the usual calming effect of scale – a fitting mirror to its chief executive’s penchant for grandiose promises and reality checks alike.
