Stocktake: Jamie Dimon’s warning was misrepresented

JP Morgan chief executive Jamie Dimon last week warned about a “hurricane” headed towards the US economy, but the bank’s high-profile market strategist Marko Kolanovic is one of the most bullish voices on Wall Street. What gives?

In reality, Dimon’s warnings were much more qualified than suggested by the dire headlines. He is concerned by tightening financial conditions and the war in Ukraine, but his message ultimately emphasised just how uncertain everything is right now.

The economic hurricane might be “minor” or it might be “Superstorm Sandy”. Market volatility is likely because of quantitative tightening, but “I don’t know what the effect of that is”. Oil prices might soar, but “bright clouds” include healthy consumer spending, rising wages, ample jobs and a banking industry in “great shape”.

“I think it’s okay to hope that it will end up okay,” added Dimon. “Who the hell knows?” Dimon’s message wasn’t bearish. It was one of cautious uncertainty – no more.