The hoariest of political cliches holds that politicians must campaign in poetry but govern in prose.
If, as seems inevitable, UK prime minister Keir Starmer soon makes way for Andy Burnham, the silver-tongued former Greater Manchester mayor may end up governing Britain in gobbledegook unless he can quickly fashion a coherent agenda that marries his litany of expensive promises with the fiscal realities that thwarted Starmer.
If his looming premiership is to succeed, Burnham must achieve this while also steering the UK’s Labour Party between the political Scylla of the populist right led by Reform UK that is devouring its working-class base, and the Charybdis of a resurgent Green Party menacing it from the left.
Burnham won the Makerfield byelection by promising to rewire the British state. He may find, as Starmer did, that his toolbox is limited. Negotiating this reality while keeping the hopeful vibes of his byelection campaign may be the biggest challenge facing the man who seems certain to be in Downing Street before long.
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When will Burnham’s reign begin?
The mood music this weekend suggested Starmer may set out a timetable for his departure as soon as Monday. Burnham’s closest political allies have always wanted the transition to “go long” to September, giving him time to prepare for government.
Starmer’s power may have drained like a five-year-old iPhone in recent weeks. But now that he appears to have finally accepted his fate, he holds one final lever of power that only he can pull: the exact timing of his exit.
While Burnham might prefer early September, there are reasons why Starmer might be wary of this, even though it would give him time for a long goodbye. A summer of speculation over Burnham’s intentions could be destabilising for financial markets and also politically, by allowing Labour’s opponents to define the issues.
An accelerated option could see the UK prime minister quitting in mid-to-late July. There is a Nato summit on July 7th, and Starmer may want to be there. Shoring up support for Ukraine is one of the few unifying themes in UK politics, and he may see it as his legacy.
Then there is a crucial UK summit with the European Union on July 22nd. Given both sides will be negotiating details of their relationship for years to come, the EU may want to deal with the new regime. Starmer must decide if he wants to be summit messenger-boy for Burnham, or if he simply makes it his usurper’s problem and leaves before then.
Also, the World Cup final is July 19th. Could Starmer, an ardent football fan, decide to go on the 20th, allowing for the possibility of going out on a high if England wins?
What problems will Burnham face?
During the Makerfield campaign, Burnham’s promises included cutting train fares (Britain is nationalising its rail companies); cheaper water and energy bills; more investment in public services, training and “re-industrialisation” to help working class communities. None of it will come cheap.
Yet Burnham will inherit a country with a debt-to-GDP ratio of a lofty 95 per cent, a ballooning benefits bill that Labour MPs seem loath to cut, the unwanted attention of jittery bond markets and also the deepest, blackest of holes in its defence budget.
The latter issue is what finally did for Starmer, when his previously-loyal defence secretary John Healey quit in anger less than a fortnight ago. At a time when the British establishment believes it hears the drumbeat of a future war with Russia, Starmer offered Healey barely £13.5 billion to rebuild the UK’s armed forces. Healey wanted at least £18 billion while military chiefs said £28 billion was needed.
This conundrum will be top of Burnham’s in-tray, alongside welfare reform.
Who will be Burnham’s chancellor of the exchequer?
The answer to this question will reveal much about how Burnham intends to govern. It may be the most important decision he makes as prime minister.
The incumbent Rachel Reeves is a Starmerite and seems as doomed as he – Burnham wants a break from the past. It had long been speculated that soft left-winger Ed Miliband could replace her, suggesting Burnham would follow through with a fiscally-expansive agenda. But there are now some doubts in Westminster about this.
Miliband is unpopular with Labour’s flintier unionised left because of his commitment to net-zero policies, such as ending North Sea drilling, that could crater the sort of industrial jobs that Burnham is promising to bring back. Miliband is also unpopular with Labour’s fiscally conservative right wing.
Burnham could try to solve the defence budget problem by handing the chancellor role to Healey and tasking him with finding the cash for new tanks and warplanes.
Or he could do a deal to give it to Wes Streeting, the only other Labour MP who might fancy a tilt at Number 10 when Starmer steps down. Streeting would likely want either the chancellorship or the role of foreign secretary to agree not to run.
Burnham may have won the Makerfield race, but only now is he approaching the starting line to fix Britain’s ills.
