Could the Strait of Hormuz remain closed after the US-Israel war on Iran ends?
US president Donald Trump has told aides he is willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
The report said Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the strait would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks.
Over the past month, Trump has expressed various opinions in public on how to handle the closure of the waterway, part of a larger pattern of giving conflicting goals and objectives of the war overall. He has at times threatened to bomb civilian energy infrastructure if the channel isn’t reopened by a certain date. On other occasions, he has played down the importance of the strait to the US and said its closure is a problem for other nations to solve.
How would the closure of the strait affect the US?
The US is less directly reliant than Asia, which depends on Hormuz for 80-90 per cent of oil and liquefied natural gas it uses. However, the US, which produces 85 per cent of energy consumed domestically, has not escaped. The US has suffered a 30 per cent rise in price for petrol and a 40 per cent surge for diesel. Consumers have been assured by the Trump administration that the spikes are short term.
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What would happen to European countries?
The US’s traditional allies – such as the UK and France – have been meeting US officials over recent weeks to explore ways of providing security for the safe passage of oil tankers through the strait once the war ends.
However, on Tuesday, Trump posted on social media that countries “like the United Kingdom” who can’t get jet fuel because of the restrictions should “build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT”.
He wrote that countries will “have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you any more, just like you weren’t there for us”. Addressing countries “which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran”, he said: “Go get your own oil!”
Are any oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz?
Iran’s policy has been dubbed “selective closure”. Ships belonging to Tehran’s friends and allies – China, India and Thailand – have passed through the strait.
About five to six tankers, bulk carriers and container ships have been crossing the strait daily, tracking data and satellite imagery has shown, making a total of about 150 since the war began. Before the war the number was about 95 daily.
What are Iran’s plans for the strait?
Iran’s parliamentary national security committee has approved draft legislation requiring ships that are given access to pay transit tolls.
The Bill would ban vessels linked to the US and Israel from accessing the strait and prohibit passage to ships from countries imposing unilateral sanctions on Iran. The Bill awaits full parliamentary approval.
Iran seeks to charge hostile nations $2 million (€1.7 million) to be paid in Chinese yuan while granting free passage to ships from friendly nations. Iran intends this regime to be permanent, not a wartime emergency measure. At least two vessels have paid the toll, according to Lloyd’s List cited by Al-Jazeera.
How would the new system work?
Vessels submit their international maritime number, cargo manifest, crew list, ownership details and destination port to Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intermediaries to secure authorisation. Approved vessels are escorted through the strait by an IRGC naval boat.
Instead of sticking to the established route along two well-defined lanes running through the centre of the strait between Iran and Oman, approved vessels must follow the Iranian coastline. Consequently, vessels remain within Iranian jurisdiction during passage.
