Tehran has warned Iran would mount costly retaliation if Israel and the US stage strikes on Iranian territory or against Iranian naval shipping in the Persian Gulf or the Gulf of Oman.
An Iranian official stated: “The Bab al-Mandab Strait is considered one of the strategic straits in the world, and Iran has both the will and the possibility to produce a completely credible threat against it.” Action could be taken by Iran itself and/or allied Yemeni Houthis, who opened a second front by firing cruise missiles and drones at Israel on Saturday and Sunday.
Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said their missiles have targeted military sites and vowed to continue strikes until Israel “ceases its attacks and aggression”.
Although Israel has intercepted their missiles and drones, the Houthis potentially pose a serious threat against Israel, its allies, and the international community if they disrupt shipping through the Suez Canal.
READ MORE
Vessels reach the canal via the Red Sea, which they enter through Bab al-Mandab Strait, which lies between Yemen and the Horn of Africa. As the chief maritime route between Europe and Asia, the Suez Canal handles 12-15 per cent of world trade and 30 per cent of global container shipping.
Although Saudi Arabia can bypass the largely blocked Strait of Hormuz by exporting oil through its Red Sea ports, Qatar, Bahrain and the Emirates depend on Hormuz for trade.
However, Saudi exports would also be blocked if the Houthis close Bab al-Mandab. Saudi Arabia produces 11–13 per cent of the globe’s total oil. When combined with the output of the Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar and Oman, this accounts for 22-30 per cent of global crude oil production.
In response to Israel’s 2023-2025 war on Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis carried out attacks on Israel and Israeli commercial shipping in the Red Sea. In response, Israel, the US and UK staged strikes on targets in Yemen, and Washington imposed sanctions on the Houthis.
During the 1990s, the Houthi clan formed their Shia fundamentalist politico-military opposition movement. On the domestic level, the Houthis emerged as a central player in Yemen’s seven-year civil war in which the government was backed by the US and Saudi Arabia until a ceasefire was signed in April 2022.
The Houthis currently hold Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, the northwest of the country where most Yemenis dwell, the port of Hodeidah and Bab al-Mandab. By taking action to back Iran in this war, the Houthis could reignite Yemen’s civil strife.
On regional and international levels, the Houthis became a key actor in Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” against Israel and the US. Although axis members Palestine’s Hamas and Lebanon’s Hizbullah have been weakened by Israeli attacks, the Houthis have remained relatively unscathed.
However, the Houthis do not have a free hand. Closure of the strait would wreck Yemen’s economy, which depends totally on imported fuel, food and other essential goods.
