Commenting on Donald Trump’s announcement that contacts with Iran were under way to end the war, Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu released a video clip on Monday evening, ostensibly welcoming the development.
“Trump believes there is an opportunity to leverage the tremendous achievements we have reached alongside the US military to realise the goals of the war through an agreement that will safeguard our vital interests,” he said.
However, this was followed by a clarification that, for now, it’s business as usual.
“At the same time, we are continuing to strike in both Iran and Lebanon. We are smashing the missile programme and the nuclear programme, and we continue to deal severe blows to Hizbullah,” Netanyahu said.
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To underline the point, about half an hour after Trump made his announcement, the Israeli air force again attacked Tehran.
Netanyahu has a history of sabotaging potential deals that he believes are contrary to Israel’s interests.
Anonymous Israeli officials were quoted as saying the current contacts between Washington and Tehran are serious but are unlikely to end in a deal.
According to some reports Israel was in the loop over the contacts with Iran; other reports suggested Israel was taken by surprise. What’s clear is that the decision to explore a diplomatic off-ramp was Trump’s and it’s not clear that American and Israeli interests overlap. Much will depend on the exact terms of a ceasefire agreement, if we get to that stage.
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US vice president JD Vance spoke with Netanyahu on Monday and updated him on the efforts to renew talks with Iran.
The aim of regime change, touted at the beginning of the war, has already disappeared and been replaced by the language of “creating the conditions for the Iranian people to act at a future date.” Trump implied in comments on Monday that regime change has already occurred, given the number of regime officials eliminated so far in the war.
On the nuclear issue, Israel would want to see not only the removal from Iran of the 440kg of enriched uranium in its possession, but also guarantees that the enrichment process cannot be renewed (along with a robust inspection regime to ensure this). There is concern that Washington would be willing to settle on merely removing the existing enriched uranium stockpile.
If there is an agreement, even if it is not to Israel’s liking, Israel will follow suit and accept a ceasefire. Netanyahu will have to sell the deal to the Israeli public, who were hoping that this war would mark the end of the Islamic Republic and Tehran’s “ring of fire” doctrine, whereby proxies surround and threaten Israel.
