As day two of the war draws to a close, Iran is being pounded around the clock by US and Israeli planes, but it is far from clear whether the goal of the operation – toppling the regime – will be achieved.
There is a fear in Israel that sooner, rather than later, US president Donald Trump – faced with significant opposition to the war back home – will put the brakes on, order the cessation of hostilities and say it’s now up to the Iranian people to take to the streets. Such a scenario could play out by the weekend.
Israel needs no reminder that it was the US president who put an end to the 12-day war in June after US B-2 bombers attacked Iran’s nuclear installations: Trump reportedly shouted down the phone at Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, forcing him to order Israeli jets, on another sortie towards Iran, to turn back immediately.
This fear explains the intensity of the Israeli strikes. Each pilot is reportedly flying three sorties a day, leaving little time for rest.
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But regimes rarely fall from air strikes. The key factor will be the Iranian people and whether mass protests resume after so many were murdered by regime forces during the demonstrations in January.
Will some elements of the Iranian armed forces swap sides and engage regime loyalists? The potential certainly exists. Iranian experts estimate support for the regime stands at no more than 15-20 per cent of the population. Some 40 per cent of Iranians belong to ethnic minorities, many of whom are openly hostile to the Shia clerics.
The attacks on Saturday, the opening day of the campaign, were another example of Israel’s deep penetration of an enemy state more than 1,600km away. Some 200 fighter jets operated for hours over western and central Iran, dropping hundreds of munitions on approximately 500 targets: air defence systems, missile launchers, command-and-control sites, launch infrastructure and more, all in broad daylight.
Despite Iran’s highest state of alert, Israel managed to penetrate, disrupt key systems, strike selected targets and establish air superiority, creating freedom of the skies for Israeli and US fighters as the operation moves forward.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, accused Israel and the US of launching a war that was “wholly unprovoked, illegal and illegitimate”.
The assassination of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini in the initial strike of the war on Saturday morning raised speculation in Israel that Netanyahu will be tempted to call an early election – probably in June – particularly if the regime is toppled.
What better way to win back voters’ approval after the massacre of October 7th, 2023, when 1,200 Israelis – the overwhelming majority of them civilians – were killed? His campaign strategy would be clear: “yes, the army and the intelligence community let us down on October 7th, but look how I have managed to turn things around, defeating Iran and its proxies on all fronts, toppling the ayatollah’s regime and leaving Israel as the undisputed military superpower in the Middle East.”
None of my political opponents, he would argue, could have achieved this.
However, such calculations may be premature. Anything can happen in war and Sunday’s incident in the city of Beit Shemesh, near Jerusalem, was a reminder: at least nine residents, including children, were killed when an Iranian missile slammed into an old bomb shelter beneath a synagogue, which was totally destroyed. If bomb shelters are not safe, then nowhere is safe, and there may be similar incidents to come.
