Middle EastAnalysis

Assad’s fall sees Iran’s regional influence wane

Yemen-based Houthis are the only full-strength survivors of Tehran’s axis of resistance

Bashar al-Assad and Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran in May. Photograph: AP
Bashar al-Assad and Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran in May. Photograph: AP
Michael Jansen's picture
Michael Jansen
Thu Dec 12 2024 - 16:33

Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has blamed the United States and Israel for the fall of the Assad regime. Assad’s overthrow is seen as a major blow to Shia-Muslim Iran’s regional policies and status.

The ayatollah said, “What happened in Syria was mainly planned in the command rooms of America and Israel.” He referred to the involvement of a “neighbouring government of Syria” without mentioning Turkey, which played a major role in Assad’s fall. Despite the takeover of Syria by the Sunni fundamentalist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied opposition groups, Tehran has said it seeks good relations with Damascus if the new government embraces Syria’s diverse communities.

Tehran and Damascus developed close strategic ties after Iran’s 1979 clerical revolution ousted the US-supported pro-Israel shah and adopted the Palestinian cause. During the 1980s, Syria outraged fellow Arabs by backing Iran during the Iran-Iraq War. At the time, Syria was ruled by the branch of the Baath Party under Hafez al-Assad and Iraq was governed by a rival branch under Saddam Hussein. Gulf states armed and funded Iraq while Egypt and Jordan supported Iraq politically. By choosing Iran in this conflict, Syria endured decades of Arab ostracism.

Egypt’s 1979 peace treaty with Israel and the 1980s emergence – with Iranian aid – of Lebanon’s Hizbullah prompted Tehran to form the axis of resistance comprising Hizbullah, Palestinian Hamas, Yemeni Houthis and Syria. Iran armed Hizbullah and provided billions of dollars for Lebanese reconstruction after the 1982 and 2006 wars with Israel. During the 1990s Iran also trained and armed Hamas and, when Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates attacked Yemen in 2015, provided the Houthis with weapons.

READ MORE

[ Michael Jansen: Turkey set to benefit from Assad's downfall ]

[ Abu Mohammed al-Jolani: Michael Jansen's profile of the HTS leader ]

After unrest erupted in Syria during the 2011 Arab Spring, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Quds force commander Qassem Soleimani advised the Syrian military and provided logistical support, weapons and ground forces to contain and confine opposition factions in Syria’s northwest Idlib province. Former al-Qaeda offshoot Jabhat al-Nusra, which had morphed into HTS, was based in Idlib and led the offensive against Assad. It has appointed an interim government to rule Syria.

Since its attack on Israel on October 7th, 2023, Hamas has been crushed in Gaza. Hizbullah has been crippled in Lebanon while the overthrow of Assad has put Syria out of action. The marginal Houthis are the only survivors of the axis of resistance, which had accorded Iran regional political influence and military outreach after its clerics failed to export their Shia revolution to the Sunni Arab heartland.

While Israel and the US have benefited from the fall of the axis of resistance, Israel’s anti-Palestinian policies have promoted reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the region’s trend setter. This began in March 2023, when China brokered rapprochement between Tehran and Riyadh after seven years of estrangement. It boosted existing ties between the Gulf and Iran.