There is growing optimism in Israel that an agreement will be reached to end the Lebanon war before Donald Trump is sworn in as US president in January.
Both Trump and US president Joe Biden have made it clear they want a deal in place before the handover. US envoy Amos Hochstein has sent a draft agreement to Israel and Lebanon, based on understandings reached during numerous visits to the region over the last 13 months. The draft is essentially an upgraded version of UN Resolution 1701, which ended the second Lebanon war in 2006.
Under the terms of the draft agreement, Hizbullah will withdraw north of the Litani river and during the first 60 days the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will remain deployed inside Lebanon, close to the border. The Lebanese army will be required to destroy all Hizbullah infrastructure between the border and the Litani river. Once this is completed, the IDF will withdraw to the international border.
Israel insists on retaining military freedom of action in the event of Hizbullah violations and wants this mechanism to be laid out in a letter accompanying the agreement.
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Israeli strategic affairs minister Ron Dermer is in the US in an effort to finalise the agreement. He is holding talks with senior US officials and is also expected to meet Trump. Last week he held talks in Moscow, which is likely to play a key role in preventing Hizbullah rearming via supply lines from Syria.
“We’ve got to seal the arms-smuggling breaches. Otherwise, we’ll have done nothing and Hizbullah will build itself up militarily again,” said Israeli officials familiar with the matter. “The arrangement will allow residents [of Israel’s north] to return home safely. It’s clear to us that they’ll only go back if they truly see security, and Hizbullah can’t snipe at them.”
Israel has been locked in fighting with Hizbullah since October 2023, but fighting has escalated dramatically since September. Israel has intensified and expanded its bombing campaign and sent troops over the border, while Hizbullah has increased rocket and drone attacks against Israel. The Lebanese health ministry said Israeli attacks have killed more than 3,000 people over the last year.
Some Israeli ministers remain reluctant to end the war while Hizbullah retains significant military capabilities, even though Israel has cleared a 5km strip north of the border of Hizbullah fighters.
Displaced Israeli residents are still wary of returning home. Avihai Stern, mayor of the city of Kiryat Shmona, which has been hit by scores of rockets fired from Hizbullah in Lebanon, said local residents would not return to their homes unless real security was restored. “I don’t think that people will be able to return when the villages – sorry, the terrorists – also return to houses a meter away from our fence,” he said.
Israel is maintaining its military pressure on Hizbullah until a ceasefire is agreed. On Monday the IDF called on residents of 21 villages in southern Lebanon to evacuate north of the Awali river. – Additional reporting: Reuters
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