Journalists in Germany are warned when they get a politician’s speech text in advance: “es gilt das gesprochene Wort” or “what counts is what’s said”.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz, not yet a full year in office, is well on his way to replacing that rule with another: what counts is what isn’t said.
The chancellor’s latest verbal slip this week gave an intriguing glimpse into the 70-year-old leader’s squeeze between the expectations of statesmanship and a growing political battle between his centre-right Christian Demoratic (CDU) and the far right.
On Monday, during an inaugural visit to Germany of Syria’s interim leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, Merz told a post-talks press conference that they had discussed the nearly one million Syrians who had fled the civil war a decade ago and settled in Germany.
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Those listening to Merz heard him say: “In the longer perspective of the next three years, it is also ... the wish of president al-Sharaa that around 80 per cent of the Syrians living in Germany return to their homeland.”
Minutes later, Germany’s leading news agency, DPA, turned the press conference into a story with the headline: “Merz: 80 per cent of Syrians back in their country in three years.”
The government disputed this version, issuing a transcript that suggested the 80 per cent goal “was the wish of the Syrian president”.
Merz agreed with that interpretation in a subsequent written statement. Hours later at Chatham House event in London, however, al-Sharaa dismissed the Berlin claims as fiction, saying the 80 per cent was mentioned by Merz.
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Last year the chancellor’s more populist Bavarian allies, the Christian Social Union (CSU) flagged an 80 per cent return goal for Syrians.
On Wednesday a government spokesman attempted to end discussion, saying both leaders agreed a “significant number” of returnees was likely.
“After the civil war, the time for return has come and the grounds for protection has expired,” said spokesman Stefan Kornelius. “It is not about a number but the [return] project as such.”
Of the 944,000 Syrian citizens in Germany, 663,000 have temporary, war-related residency permits. Nearly 80,000 more are currently in the asylum process, some 10,000 are due for deportation while the remainder have various visas and residency permits.
Around 250,000 Syrians have already acquired German citizenship in the past decade while official figures suggest around 3,700 Syrians returned home last year.
CSU politicians are delighted that Merz has revived their proposal from last year but CDU backbenchers fear the Merz slip has released a populist genie from its bottle.
Apart from unanswered questions about the modalities of return, German healthcare groups point out how nearly 8,000 Syrian carers and doctors are, in many regions, the glue holding together many overstretched hospitals. Countless more Syrians work in the private care sector, childcare and public transport.
Given all that, the opposition Green Party has described the 80 per cent remark as “not just far from reality but cynical, not just for ignoring the fragile security situation in Syria but also how many Syrian refugees have long become part of our society”.
CDU foreign policy spokesman Roderich Kiesewetter agreed his party leader’s remark was “problematic in several respects”. Many Syrian minorities still face real danger in their homeland, he pointed out, while mentioning concrete targets raised often impossible expectations.
Many in the chancellor’s party doubt that loud talk of deportations will impress – and win back – voters who have turned to the anti-immigration, anti-Islam Alternative for Germany (AfD).
That party is neck-and-neck with the ruling CDU/CSU in polls, effectively tapping public uncertainty into the long-term consequences of mass immigration.
While chancellors Merkel and Scholz mastered the art of saying nothing, Social Democratic Party (SPD) deputy leader Anke Rehlinger suggested chancellor Merz had yet to learn that skill set.
“It was not a wise move,” she said, “to put forward specific figures within specific time frames, because that raises expectations he may not be able to meet.”
