This winter, all Dutch households began receiving a government booklet instructing them on how to be prepared to survive for 72 hours without water, electricity or phone signal, in an emergency situation caused by extreme weather or a hostile attack.
“Our safety is under threat. While the Netherlands is currently not at war, we are not at peace either,” the booklet explains.
“Other countries are trying to influence us, for example by spreading fake news on the internet or by attacking critical systems. They are already compiling information on our power cables, internet cables and gas pipelines in order to be able to damage them.”
It’s part of a step change on the European Continent towards viewing war as a concrete possibility, causing a surge in defence spending and a series of countries to reintroduce military service to boost troop numbers.
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Fuelling the shift is a clear message from the administration of United States president Donald Trump that Washington is no longer interested in acting as the backstop to Europe’s security.
[ Russia to shift forces to Nato’s border after Ukraine peace deal, leaders warnOpens in new window ]
A National Security Strategy published last month stated that the US wants to withdraw troops from positions in Europe – where they have acted as a deterrent to Moscow since the end of the second World War – to concentrate them in the western hemisphere, encompassing north and south America.
At the same time, leaders in Europe have warned that they have intelligence suggesting Russia is preparing for conflict beyond Ukraine, and would be ready to attack a Nato country within three to five years.
“We are Russia’s next target. And we are already in harm’s way,” Nato chief Mark Rutte warned this month. “Russia has brought war back to Europe, and we must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents and great grandparents endured.”
The messages are filtering down to the public, contributing to a foreboding atmosphere in different countries on the Continent.
“There’s a definite feeling of worry that war of some sort is coming,” an aunt texted from the Netherlands.
A friend in France recalled being woken by his radio to an alarming speech by a French general. The defence forces chief Fabien Mandon warned in the public address that France might need to be prepared to accept suffering or even the loss of children.
“Unfortunately, Russia today, as I know from the information to which I have access, is preparing for a confrontation by 2030 with our countries. It is organising for it, preparing for it, and it is convinced that its existential enemy is Nato, and therefore our countries,” Mandon said.
“We must accept that we live in a risky world, and that we may have to use force to protect who we are.”
It comes against a backdrop of incidents including sabotage, drone interference at airports, and cyberattacks that have heightened a sense of insecurity.
This month, Germany summoned the Russian ambassador over what Berlin said was a surge in hybrid attacks by Moscow, including a cyberattack on air traffic control and attempted electoral interference – activities that Russia has denied being involved in.
A prolonged blackout across the Iberian peninsula this summer was attributed to technical issues, but illustrated how, in a highly digitalised and interconnected world, failures in critical infrastructure can have cascading effects. People were stranded in trains and lifts, traffic lights failed, and crowds formed wherever there was a battery-powered radio to hear what was happening as the electricity failure caused mobile reception and wifi to go out.
[ Putin accuses EU of attempting ‘daylight robbery’ of Russian assetsOpens in new window ]
A report by consultancy Deloitte Ireland and think-tank the Institute of International and European Affairs this month, based on round-table discussions convened between industry leaders and government agencies, said the potential consequences of an attack on Ireland’s electricity infrastructure was a “leading concern”.
It called for increased public awareness and Government adaptation to “the risks of a now dangerous world”.
The report concluded that Ireland is facing a security environment that is at its “most dangerous point in recent history”.
“Of greatest concern is that the possibility of an armed attack on an EU member state, and its reverberating consequences for Ireland, are no longer outside the bounds of possibility.”
The report noted the risk of cascading fallout from an attack on Ireland’s electricity infrastructure and flagged Dublin Port as a particular vulnerability because it “represents a significant single point of failure in the national supply chain”.
“Food would start to disappear from shop shelves within three days if there was a material adverse event there,” the report read.
Some parties expressed concerns about “increased targeting by overseas intelligence services”, with one tech sector representative saying they have had to increase awareness of the risk of Russia, China or India attempting to place spies within their organisations.
The report noted that last year Germany and the United States foiled a plot, attributed to Russia, to assassinate the chief executive of a German defence company that supplies weapons to Ukraine.
It published a quote by a participant: “Not only are we heading for war in Europe, but we are heading for a war Europe might lose.”
