When Indian forces launched air strikes against targets in Pakistan this week, world leaders reacted with expressions of concern, urging both nuclear-armed states to avoid further escalation. German chancellor Friedrich Merz and French president Emmanuel Macron said they viewed the clashes with “utmost concern” and Donald Trump described the fighting as “a shame”.
“I guess people knew something was going to happen based on a little bit of the past. They’ve been fighting for a long time. They’ve been fighting for many, many decades. I hope it ends very quickly,” he said.
During previous clashes between India and Pakistan, the US has played a role in pressuring both sides to de-escalate. But Trump’s White House is distracted by multiple crises of its own making, and its depleted diplomatic bandwidth is overloaded as it tries to broker peace in Ukraine and to strike a new nuclear deal with Iran.
Russia has offered to mediate, but although it still provides about 50 per cent of India’s weapons, Moscow has moved closer to Islamabad in recent years as New Delhi has cultivated a warmer relationship with Washington. China enjoys an “ironclad, all-weather friendship” with Pakistan, while its relations with India are permanently tense.
During the last comparable flare-up between India and Pakistan in 2019, the first Trump administration and other governments helped to facilitate the handover of an Indian pilot who was shot down in Pakistan. The pilot’s safe return reduced passions in India and defused the tensions.
[ Pakistan prime minister authorises retaliationOpens in new window ]
This time, India gave advance notice of its air strikes to a number of governments, including the US, Russia, Britain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, although reports suggest that it did not brief China. On previous occasions, it briefed all five permanent members of the security council.
Although Washington worked with other countries to encourage de-escalation during previous clashes between India and Pakistan, it has not been in a position to bend both countries to its will since Bill Clinton intervened to end a conflict in the Kargil district. This intervention launched a pivot by Washington from backing Pakistan during the Cold War to nurturing closer diplomatic and security ties with India.
The most energetic mediation this time has been that of Iran, whose foreign minister has visited Islamabad and New Delhi this week. Tehran enjoys a strategically balanced relationship with both countries, as a major oil supplier and economic partner to India, but sharing a long border with Pakistan.
India’s response to last month’s attack by militants in Pahalgam included a decision to suspend a 65-year-old treaty to share the waters of the Indus river and its tributaries with Pakistan. Prime minister Narendra Modi said this week that India would stop its water flowing across international borders.
“Now, India’s water will flow for India’s benefit, it will be conserved for India’s benefit, and it will be used for India’s progress,” he said.
[ India-Pakistan conflict has potential for serious escalationOpens in new window ]
Mediated by the World Bank and signed in 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty has survived wars between India and Pakistan to stand as an example of co-operation under the international rules-based system. It has no exit clause and remains in force until both countries sign and ratify a new treaty agreeing to terminate it.
Despite the ferocity of India’s military response to the Pahalgam attacks, it has followed predictable lines that leave open the possibility of de-escalation. Failure to restore the Indus Waters Treaty could trigger a bigger crisis, not only for India and Pakistan but for the entire multilateral order.
