Win they're in, lose they're out

RUGBY: It was destined to come down to this. Two nerve-wracking Anglo-Irish affairs, potentially epic and likely to be either heart-breaking or euphoric. In almost time-honoured fashion, Munster play hosts to Sale at Thomond Park on Saturday at 5.15pm in one of those do-or-die contests against the form team in England. The next day, Leinster trek to the Rec for their own make-or-break duel with Bath at 3pm.

For all the typically complex permutations across the six pools going into the final round of pool games, if Munster win they go through and if Leinster win they, too, progress to the last eight. Defeat for either, or both, and they will almost certainly be out, as they seek to ensure an Irish presence in the knock-out stages for the eighth season in a row.

Munster and Leinster are among nine teams vying for the remaining five quarter-final places still up for grabs, and they face unbeaten English pool pacesetters who, along with the holders Toulouse, are the only sides to have assured themselves of a place in the last eight.

In neither instance is that liable to dampen their ardour, however, not least because of the jockeying for a cherished "home" quarter-final in early April. Sale secured qualification in the last eight for the first time by beating the Dragons 30-10 in Edgeley Park yesterday, with a Charlie Hodgson try securing the bonus point in the 57th minute. But they celebrated as if the job were only partially done.

This leaves them five points clear of Munster, who would need to beat Sale with a bonus point, and deny Sale one, to top the pool by dint of match points in the head-to-head meetings and have any chance of a home quarter-final.

But captain Anthony Foley admits Munster cannot afford to go into the game with that mindset, and would gladly take a win and qualification at this juncture.

"If you go in thinking of having to get a bonus point the game could pass you by and you end up losing," he said. "The most important thing is to win, and at least we've given ourselves a chance. It's in our hands now.

"We're going to be in a good place, Thomond Park, and the crowd should be boisterous enough," he added with deliberate understatement. "It should be awesome. I think you can sometimes underestimate the effect which our support has. When you go to somewhere like Castres and you see 2,000-plus friendly faces, it is a great lift."

Yesterday, Leicester completed a stunning comeback to beat last season's finalists State Français 29-22, having trailed by 10 points with a dozen minutes of normal time remaining, thanks in part to moments of magic from Geordan Murphy, despite the departure nearing half-time of the colossal Shane Jennings. Leicester's win means the two-time winners need only to secure a bonus point away to Clermont Auvergne to ensure qualification, while Stade, at home to the Ospreys the same evening, have a maximum target of 20 points.

This effectively clears Leinster's path to the quarter-finals as one of the two best runners-up should they beat Bath and reach 21 points, especially as they have the highest tally of tries, 23, in the competition.

Leinster will have a further advantage in that by kick-off next Sunday all the other five pools will have been completed and they will know exactly what's required of them.

It is possible for either of the Irish provinces to qualify in defeat, with a bonus point or two, but this is unlikely, especially in Leinster's case. Basically, win and they're through. Lose, and they're out. That should at least clarify their mindset.

And as coach Michael Cheika said after Leinster's 46-22 win over Glasgow on Saturday: "Nothing comes unless you earn it."

They should have Jamie Heaslip back, and despite the injury to flanker Cameron Jowitt they emerged unscathed. "Jowitt rolled his ankle and I took him off so he wouldn't do any more damage, but I think he'll be alright."

"There's no point in being tentative next week," vowed Cheika. "We're not lucky to have the chance, we've earned it, but we are lucky 'cos there's some teams that don't have the chance, and this team wants to show that when the chips are down, it's going to try and stay in there and get the win. I think we've shown that a fair few times this year now, that there's a lot of fighting spirit here, and we're going to try and build on that even more next weekend."

In the European Challenge Cup, victory for Connacht in Sicily next Friday against Catania will assure them of a quarter- final spot for the fourth year running.