Tipperary's superiority in defence to just swing it

Of all the matches this weekend Tipperary-Waterford is impossible to predict. There is one Waterford who can beat anyone, typically in the Munster championship, and another, invariably in Croke Park, who look unsure of themselves, get embroiled in vendettas, become individualistic in their thinking and give away horrendous goals through errors and bad luck.

This year, whether they actually discussed it or not, they decided the qualifier route would be the one for them and they would do their hurling from July on rather than before. Whereas it's possible they'll produce a level of performance we haven't seen from them since the Munster final of 2004, the policy of taking the qualifier route has its acid test tomorrow because there'll be no second chances or opportunities to strengthen the team if they lose.

Croke Park as a venue isn't the full story of Waterford's lack of success there. As Munster champions in 2002 they were doing nothing for six weeks while Clare had match practice beating Galway. There was a history going back to '98 and Clare had much more experience of Croke Park. It was the same in 2004, playing Kilkenny who have always been a bogey team.

Again there'd been a long break whereas their opponents had plenty of match practice. I think these matches had less to do with Croke Park than with who they were playing.

In this case they won't see Tipperary as the same sort of obstacle. In the last few years they've had successes against them. Waterford have some of the most talented players - Ken McGrath, Eoin Kelly, Paul Flynn, Tony Browne, John Mullane, Dan Shanahan and Michael Walsh - in the country and if they find their rhythm they are pretty much unbeatable.

Their top seven or eight are better than any county's but their tail-enders aren't great and, unfortunately for Waterford, the tail end is the defence. Against Galway they got 1-25 and shot 19 wides, but at the other end they conceded 2-20, which would lose most matches.

The key for Tipp is to stop them reaching a gallop and when they get frustrated, exploit the indiscipline that follows - playing as individuals, getting blocked, giving away frees, shooting from positions they shouldn't dream of shooting from and becoming petulant.

One school of thought is Waterford were understrength and resigned to losing in June; yet they nearly won. I'll be surprised if Tipperary are as poor as they looked in the Munster semi-final. Eoin Kelly scored 2-8, Diarmaid Fitzgerald had a stormer, Brendan Cummins made some vital saves and that pulled them through. At half-time Waterford looked uninterested and you were hoping they'd make some sort of a contest of it. Then for 15 or 20 minutes in the second half they turned it right around and almost won.

But it was an awkward game for Tipp mentally and they showed improvement in the Munster final, even if there was an obvious weakness in the half forwards. But you've' to remember they were playing on the best half-back line around.

The backs were good. Paul Ormonde came back well and Paul Curran was outstanding. The half backs were very good and at midfield Shane McGrath continued his upward graph and Paul Kelly showed enough to suggest that with a bit more fitness he'll be a lot better.

This is a very big quarter-final because whoever wins this will be very dangerous and will fancy themselves to get to the All-Ireland.

The disruption in the Tipp camp doesn't seem to have caused many complaints or even much talk. It's the sort of thing that could well flare up if they lose tomorrow but I don't think it has interfered with preparation.

Francis Devanney as replacement for Redser (O'Grady)is a bit of a chance in my book. He hasn't been close to the team all year and it's a bit of a shot in the dark even if he did show well in a challenge match against Galway last weekend. Babs has gone for a straight swap rather than move around a couple of players. My own preference would be to do that and switch John Carroll to centre forward, given the importance of limiting Ken McGrath's influence.

Everyone knows that Tipp rely on Eoin Kelly and one of the heartening things about the Munster final was he didn't have one of his better days and yet the team ran Cork close. I think Waterford will be afraid of him after what happened in Páirc Uí Chaoimh, even if they did err in putting Denis Coffey, a rookie, on him. Eoin Murphy did well in the second half and is probably the Waterford player with the best chance of marking him.

Waterford need to be at their best but I think the Tipp defence is very, very good and my gut feeling is they will sneak it by about two points. And that's the head talking.

As regards tomorrow's other match, between Wexford and Clare, after Wexford's dire Leinster semi-final display against Offaly, it was possible to believe they would raise their game for the Leinster final against Kilkenny. But they didn't and it's hard to see them turning things around.

Wexford's form against Offaly mightn't be too wide of the mark, which would put them on a par with Offaly, who have been no threat in the qualifiers. Clare are in a groove, did what they had to do to top the group.

I believe Cork got very high for May to beat Clare - maybe too high. I think Clare will come through comfortably and be a serious challenge in the semi-finals.