Springboks, maybe, just

RUGBY: History decrees that Jake White is entitled to adopt a somewhat dismissive attitude towards South Africa's hosts today, given they've lost just once in 16 meetings with Ireland.

And he who ignores history is fated to repeat it. Not that Ireland have had much chance of ignoring it.

The war of words between the rival coaches, which White's remarks prompted during the week, abated a little yesterday, though clearly the ripple effects will simmer until kick-off. White wasn't inclined to take back his comments that only three Irish players would make it into the Springboks' 22, merely stating he was backing his own players.

Maintaining that he was "surprised" by Eddie O'Sullivan's aggrieved reaction which "was blown out of all proportion", possibly as a means to "gee up his own players", White added: "I've huge respect for Irish rugby. The Willie John McBrides, the Syd Millars, the Noel Murphys, Ollie Campbells and Fergus Slatterys are great players, and great people come out of this country. So if it was seen as disrespectful then that is not the way it was intended."

As for O'Sullivan he maintained that "Jake's remarks . . . were pretty much an attack on Irish rugby as a sport. We're as proud a rugby nation as anybody else. We mightn't be as good as South Africa according to the record books but we're proud of our rugby. So it had nothing to do with the game actually, I just felt unhappy about what he said. I felt it was totally unnecessary."

What effect all of this will have is a moot point, except that after a seven-month hiatus since the Triple Crown coronation, Lansdowne Road is liable to be in even more of a tizzy come kick-off. That win over Scotland last March was Ireland's 13th win out of their last 14 tests at Lansdowne Road and in truth, South Africa haven't always played that well at the venue, and most of this Springboks team have limited experience of touring in the Northern Hemisphere, never mind actually playing at this exposed ground, the vagaries of which took their kickers by surprise yesterday.

The Boks will undoubtedly benefit from last week's nervous and rusty 38-36 win over Wales. They were particularly adept at winning the ball, less so at using it, coughing up possession through turnovers.

One would expect Ireland's more established line-out combinations to be more effective than the Welsh lineout was. Ditto their first-up tackling and their defensive reorganisation in broken play, in which case South Africa will have to work harder for their scores.

However, the hard-running, high-tempo opening salvo by the Springboks, which earned a 23-6 lead inside the first 25 minutes, was an ominous sign that perhaps a few Celtic League matches and a couple of Heineken European Cup games are insufficient preparation for Test match rugby against the Tri Nations champions.

Preventing the Springboks' potent mix of big, athletic runners on the gain line from securing quick ball for their pace out wide will be difficult, as O'Sullivan admitted, but he added: "I'd like to see one score in the game going into the last 10 minutes and see what happens."

Certainly, Ireland should be every bit as fresh and fit, as well as more experienced (a combined 827 caps, as against the Springboks' 443), in such a scenario.

Physically, at the point of impact, the Boks are more liable to impose themselves. By contrast, getting Brian O'Driscoll, Denis Hickie and Geordan Murphy in one-on-one skirmishes out wide represents Ireland's likeliest means of doing some damage, yet to create those openings out wide there'll be no avoiding the heavy-duty stuff.

Aside from his attention to detail and preparation, O'Sullivan's primary virtue as a coach is coming up with the right gameplan. We saw that at its best at Twickenham last year. You'd expect him to have reviewed the videos of Ireland's two performances last June and have adapted accordingly.

Ireland will need to begin by safely securing their own ball, but while there will again be some merit in attempting to put the Springbok lineout under pressure deep in their own territory, this will probably have to be mixed with more of a kick and chase game.

While Ireland again had a good percentage return from their lineouts in June, the Springboks used their lineout ball more dynamically; varying the orthodox stuff by launching Fourie du Preez at the Irish number 10 channel with dead-eyed throws by John Smit straight over the tail, or other forward rumblers and blindside wingers via quick off the top ball. No doubt there'll be a fair bit of traffic heading down Ronan O'Gara's channel today.

The Springboks will undoubtedly drift aggressively onto O'Driscoll so at various junctures, Ireland will need to use Simon Easterby's adept hands at the tail in a similar manner, so as to tuck in the Boks' speedy, big-tackling back-rowers and create those openings for Ireland's potential match-winners out wide.

The inclusion of a genuine openside in Johnny O'Connor, albeit with zero Test experience, ought to facilitate a wider game. He'll need to make his presence felt at the breakdown, where Schalk Burger lives on the edge of the law even more than most number sevens. O'Connor is made of the right stuff and there could be mileage here for Ireland in a way there wasn't last summer. Put it this way, if Ireland are to win, it would be no surprise if O'Connor emerges as the man of the match.

In the heel of the hunt, South Africa are entitled to be marginal favourites. There are no obvious weaknesses in their line-up, they possibly have more match-winners, and the Irish scrum and close-in defence could come under pressure. While Ireland have a real chance here, and they look the better bet on a six-point handicap, a gun to the head says the Springboks. Maybe. Just.

IRELAND V SOUTH AFRICA

Head to head: Played 16, South Africa 14 wins, Ireland 1 win, 1 draw.

Points: Ireland 151, South Africa 341.

Tries:_ Ireland 17, South Africa 54.

Last five meetings: 1998 - South Africa 33 Ireland 0; 1998 - Ireland 13 South Africa 27; 2000 - Ireland 18 South Africa 28; 2004 - South Africa 31 Ireland 17; South Africa 27 Ireland 17.

Leading try scorers: Ireland - Harry Sugars, Tyrone Howe 2 each; South Africa - Stefan Terblanche 4.

Leading points scorers: Ireland - Ronan O'Gara 25; South Africa - Percy Montgomery 44.

Odds (Paddy Powers): 7/4 Ireland, 20/1, 4/9 South Africa. Handicap odds (= Ireland +6pts) 10/11 Ireland, 16/1 Draw, 10/11 South Africa 10/11.

Forecast: South Africa to win.