Matt Williams: Ireland’s strong running game can yield Twickenham triumph

When the Britannic hymn Jerusalem echoes out across the grass that was once called Billy Williams’s potato patch, England’s home ground can be a very intimidating place.

When the massed choir of Twickenham belts out the fairy tale that Jesus’s holy feet once trod on England’s ancient potato patches, we get a glimpse into how those who wear the red rose will believe almost anything in order to win.

Twickenham is always a tough jig because the English belief never dies and winning there is never easy.

For England, there are several other factors, equally as improbable as Jesus hiking across Britain, for them to overcome. For a start, England are missing their preferred three-quarter line. Any team in the world would be damaged without such high-calibre talent as Anthony Watson, Owen Farrell, Manu Tuilagi and Jonny May.

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Despite these key absences, the combative England coach Eddie Jones will not be overly concerned. Eighteen months out from every World Cup, Jones likes to shake things up.

The self-help leadership books term this “disruptive leadership”. In old money, it is simply a coach stuffing about with his players’ minds. Jones wants every English player to develop the nagging anxiety that their place in the World Cup squad is insecure.

Comfort zones

Jones has more worries than just cracking his players’ mental comfort zones. England’s attack against both Scotland and Wales has been highly ineffective.

Against Scotland, England’s sole try came from Marcus Smith, as he ran into a hole created by a clever Ben Youngs pass. And it took a Welsh lineout disaster for Alex Dombrandt to cross for England’s only facile try against Wales. At both Twickenham and Murrayfield, the English attack has been embarrassingly poor.

Since Scott Wisemantel’s departure to become the Wallabies attack coach, the English attack has deteriorated. So Jones has turned to the rugby league world to bolster his technical backroom staff.

Recruiting coaches with precious little tactical wisdom or experience in international rugby is a high-stakes gamble. Martin Gleeson is the new English attack coach. He played and coached in the English rugby league but he has only a few seasons of experience coaching in rugby.

So far, his attacking plans appear to be designed for the powerhouse ball carrying of Tuilagi to smash across the gain line. The problem is Tuilagi is not playing. So England are vainly using Henry Slade as the “bosh” man, with zero effect. Slade is a quality second playmaker who is being wasted as an ineffective power runner.

England’s flawed plan is hampering Smith’s ability to drive a productive English running game. In attack, Smith is struggling to adapt to the international game. Against both Wales and Scotland he has committed the three cardinal sins of outhalf play. His alignment was far too deep, he often caught the ball standing still and he did not take the ball to the defensive line.

In the red-hot heat of the Six Nations competition, the hype around Smith's attacking play has not matched the substance. Smith's goal-kicking has been of the highest quality but his attacking play against the Celts has been well below international standard. The young outhalf needs guidance and coaching that at this moment appears to be in short supply.

One of Ireland’s key strategic goals must be to heap physical and psychological pressure on Smith by denying him time and space via hard Irish defensive line speed. Besides aiding the lineout, a key factor in Peter O’Mahony’s selection may have been to splash some old-school sledging and niggle on the young English halves. Ireland must force Smith to play deep and pass early. This will keep England’s attacking game well behind the gain line and in the same substandard zone it has been all championship.

Jones has also brought in Anthony Seibold from the Australian rugby league as defence coach. Seibold is an excellent league head coach but his total rugby experience is the previous three games of the championship. That lack of experience and deep understanding of the international game is obvious in England’s defensive frailties that both Scotland and Wales have exploited.

While Jones has selected the best pack of forwards for England in the championship to date, the backline remains highly vulnerable. That does not guarantee an Irish success but there will be plenty of opportunities for Ireland to exploit.

Hostile crowd

For Ireland, the importance of victory tomorrow cannot be overstated. Winning in the warm surrounds of the Aviva has become a habit for Ireland but to develop into a top-four world ranked team, they must learn how to voyage to a foreign shore, perform in front of a hostile crowd and win. That is what great teams do.

The game plan of the men in white will not be pretty, but if they get it right they will be highly effective. England will employ a fast defensive line, trying to catch the Irish forwards behind the gain line, with Smith kicking the leather off the ball. England will play 1950s rugby. Scrum, penalty, high kick, lineout, 50-22 kicks, maul, penalty goal.

Yuck! All that is wrong with our game rolled into one super ugly game plan. Yet, as horrid as it is, it remains a game plan that can deliver victory for England. It will all come down to whether Ireland’s new positive, running philosophy can prevail over a grimy old stinker of a plan, dredged up from the dark side of the game’s soul.

If Ireland unswervingly keep believing in their own considerable talent, they have the 23 high-quality players who can carry the day. They must impose their running game plan on England for at least 25 minutes, which is 15 minutes more than they did against France in Paris.

If they do, then Ireland can achieve a victory. In England’s green and pleasant land, that would turn a fire hose on to Jerusalem’s chariots of fire.