Force penalties and the tries will come

Matt Williams, Rugby Analyst:Ireland can win by a considerable margin here so long as they blank out the surrounding hype of playing in Rome and focus on the process of performance.

Chasing tries early on would be a grave mistake. A simple Munster-style game plan, if effective, can evolve into the free-spirited Leinster approach but only if a comfortable lead has been attained entering the final 15 minutes.

Simple tactics are required here. The forwards must gain parity via their usual areas of strength - the maul and lineout - to allow Ronan O'Gara play a territory-based game. The process should centre on accumulating penalty goals.

Every team has struggled to deal with Italy's limited style this season, except France, who gave them a belting but managed to open them up only in the latter stages.

Ireland lacked the mental ruthlessness in every game, apart from England at Croke Park, with the victories over Wales and Scotland tainted by the final scorelines and general performance. Then there was the French collapse, which will eventually be reflected upon as a tragedy. Really, this should be a Grand Slam weekend.

Italy's mental approach thus far has been excellent. Pierre Berbizier is severely hindered in his tactical approach by the loss of prop Andrea Lo Cicero, centre Gonzalo Canale and the all-encompassing Mauro Bergamasco. If not for suspension, Bergamasco probably would have been in the centre alongside his brother Mirco.

Lo Cicero's absence stymies the highly effective revamp, en bloc, of the front row around the hour mark. John Hayes won't be complaining.

Still, they play with a simplistic but highly frustrating approach. Under Berbizier, Italy might lack imagination and are even more negative than they have traditionally been but they play to their strengths. Expect a charging, narrow defence, similar to the failed English approach, a hugely skilful scrum and a damaging driving maul.

Outside scrumhalf Alessandro Troncon there is a significant drop in quality. The gulf in class between the respective three-quarter lines is massive but Ireland have failed to administer a sound beating to Italy since 2000.

Parity up front and airtight defending is paramount in the first hour. Solidity and the domination of territory, Munster-fashion really, is what will break the Italian spirit.

If they go all out attack too soon the Italians will disrupt their rhythm and in Ramiro Pez they have an outhalf with a competent kicking game.

There is a phrase I go back to time and time again; the coach can only control the controllables. France v Scotland is out of Ireland's control. I can see France racking up 40 points in this fixture, especially considering it's in Paris, but then again two years ago when I was coach, the Scots led for most of the match.

Having said that, this French side are a more powerful unit and the championship wasn't on the line back then. Historically, Bernard Laporte teams tend to perform on the last day of the tournament, basically, when it really matters.

I believe Ireland playing first is an advantage as they can focus primarily on winning the game, while France and England will be forced to push the issue if Ireland rack up a decent score.

However, points scored is not the only essential. The actual differential ensures defensive discipline is essential. It's guaranteed that Italy will infringe within O'Gara's range.

The loss of Paul O'Connell will always hurt a team but if ever an unheralded player has the mental drive and rugby education to perform at this level it is Mick O'Driscoll.

I remember he departed for Perpignan in disgust, in my opinion, at the lack of opportunity at home. He has always wanted to run out for his country.

I remember joking with Mick when Ireland A coach that he was the best A reserve in the world.

The man never quit and never dropped his focus, and it would be fitting if he played a substantial part in the Irish forwards' domination.

In Rome everything is a distraction. The stories of players taking pictures as they pass the Colosseum en route to a Test match are legendary. This Ireland team, however, have seen the sights before. No excuses for not being mentally tuned in.

Accumulate early points through O'Gara's right peg and Ireland can rip open the Italians for three or fours tries late on. Then it's over to the Scots.