And then there were nine. When Italian Andrea Piardi blows the final whistle on Saturday night at Thomond Park the eight qualifiers for the URC playoffs will be known.
There’s a little wriggle in the fact that Ulster, if they were to finish outside the top eight, could win the Challenge Cup on Saturday week in Bilbao and claim one of the eight places allocated to the URC teams in next season’s Champions Cup. For now, though, Europe is on the backburner.
Two points separates the top three teams – it was 13 points last year at the same stage – Glasgow Warriors, the Stormers and Leinster, all former champions within the last four years, each with a chance to be number one seeds and secure a home draw up to and including the final. Of the three only the Irish province is at home this weekend.
How all four Irish provinces can make the URC knockouts
Connacht have their faces placed up against the glass at the other end of the qualification process in ninth place. They’re away to Edinburgh, seeking a win and hoping that at least one of those clubs above them slip up. All four Irish provinces have plenty to play for. It promises to be an enthralling weekend.
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FRIDAY
Cardiff (Points: 50. Wins: 10. Points difference: -25) v DHL Stormers (Pts: 59. W: 12. PD: 166), Cardiff Arms Park (7.45pm, live on Premier Sports).
Stormers: John Dobson’s side currently lie second in the table. If they win without a bonus point, they will either finish first or second in the standings depending on the Glasgow result. If they win with a bonus point and Glasgow win without one, the teams will have the same number of points and wins, and the next criteria is points’ difference. The South Africa side have a 29-point advantage over their Scottish rivals. If the Stormers draw and tag on a four-try bonus point, they have a vastly superior points’ difference to Leinster. If they lose and Leinster win then the Stormers would drop out of the top two.
Cardiff: A victory of any sort would guarantee the Welsh club a place in the top eight in the final standings as Connacht (ninth) would not be able to catch them on points. If they draw and manage a four-try bonus point, Connacht could overtake them with a bonus-point win away to Edinburgh. A simple win for the Irish province could also suffice as they boast a superior points difference. If Cardiff lose, they would must pick up two points and hope that Munster lose without a bonus point. If the Welsh club lose, they can be overtaken by Ulster and Connacht.
Edinburgh (Pts: 37. W: 7, PD: -56) v Connacht (Pts: 49, W: 9, PD: 26), Hive Stadium (7.45pm, live on TG4, Premier Sports)
Edinburgh: The Scottish side have nothing to play for when it comes to the knockout stage of the URC. Three wins on the bounce and a fit again Duhan van der Merwe make them a tougher prospect than earlier in the season.
Connacht: Win. That’s the non-negotiable starting point. If Ulster, Cardiff and Munster all lose then a Connacht win sees Stuart Lancaster’s side leapfrog all three. If Connacht win with a bonus point, it steepens the task for their three rivals, bringing in mathematical permutations with regards to draws for their rivals with bonus point. That would not be enough for Ulster, as wins after points in the standings are the first separation criteria. There is a scenario that if Connacht claims eighth position, but Ulster did not qualify and win the Challenge Cup, Richie Murphy’s side would qualify for Europe next season.
Ulster (Pts: 50. W: 9. PD: 78) v Glasgow Warriors (Pts: 60. W: 12. PD: 137), Affidea Stadium (7.45pm, live on Premier Sports)
Ulster: If Ulster win they will finish in the top eight and qualify for the knockout stage of the URC. Win with a bonus point and depending on results elsewhere they have a chance to climb as high as fourth place in the table and earn a home quarter-final if other results went their way. If Richie Murphy’s side draw with a four-try bonus point, a Connacht win would enable them to go above Ulster in the standings with a higher number of wins. If Ulster win the Challenge Cup they will qualify for the Champions Cup next season, taking an automatic eighth place in the standings.
Glasgow: Win with a bonus point, and they will be number one seeds with home advantage up to and including the final. Win and they can be caught by the Stormers but not by Leinster and so the Scottish club would finish second at worst. The South African side has a better points difference. Take three points from the Ulster match (draw plus four-try bonus point) and Leinster can’t catch them. If Glasgow lose, Leinster can overtake them with a bonus-point win. If Glasgow get one point from their fixture and Leinster four from theirs, wins would be the same, but Glasgow have a 46-point start in points difference.
SATURDAY
Sharks (Pts: 41. W: 7. PD 4) v Zebre Parma (Pts: 15. W: 2. PD: -240), Kings Park (12.45pm, Irish time, live on Premier Sports)
Neither team has anything serious to play for here, with Sharks in 10th too far away from eighth and Zebre Parma isolated at the bottom of the table.
Bulls (Pts: 54. W: 11. PD: 134) v Benetton (Pts: 33. W: 6. PD: -140), Loftus Versfeld (3pm, Irish time, live on Premier Sports)
Bulls: The Bulls can leapfrog Leinster and move into third place if they win and the Irish province loses. If Leinster get a bonus point (four tries plus or losing by less than seven), then the South African side must win with one, and they would move to third with a higher number of wins. If Leinster get two points from their game, then the Bulls can’t climb above them. The Bulls can be overtaken by the Lions, if they lose, and there are other permutations – if the Lions win, pick up one more match point than their rivals, who lose – that would see them miss out on a home quarter-final. Benetton have nothing to play for.
Leinster (Pts: 58. W: 11. PD: 91) v Ospreys (Pts: 39. W: 7. PD: -24) Aviva Stadium (5.15pm, live on TG4, Premier Sports)
Leinster: If Leinster win and Glasgow and the Stormers lose, the defending URC champions will finish top of the table and enjoy the number one seeding and home advantage all the way to the final should they progress there. A bonus-point win for Leinster, and Glasgow would need to take three points from their game with Ulster. The number of wins would be the same, but the Scottish side have a vastly superior points difference. If Glasgow win, the Stormers lose and Leinster win with a bonus point Leo Cullen’s side will finish second. There are other permutations that would lead to a similar outcome with the same base level that Leinster win and the Stormers lose. If Leinster lose without a bonus point, the Lions (five-point win) could overtake them, but it will go to points differential and the Irish province has a 25-point advantage, starting off. Ospreys have nothing to play for.
Scarlets (Pts: 25. W: 4. PD: -99) v Dragons (Pts: 25. W: 3. PD: -131), Parc y Scarlets (5.15pm, live on Premier Sports)
Scarlets/Dragons: The fact that the WRU are looking to reduce the number of Welsh clubs to three by 2028 has obvious knock-on implications. So, finishing higher in the table this season won’t hinder and might help.
Munster (Pts: 51. W: 10. PD: 13) v Lions (Pts: 53. W: 10. PD: 66), Thomond Park (7.45pm, live on Premier Sports)
Munster: A bonus-point win could see them jump to fourth if the Bulls lose. A win would guarantee them a place in the top eight. If Clayton McMillan’s side lose, then Cardiff, Ulster and Connacht can overtake them if they each win. If Munster lose with two bonus points, and the other three clubs win, Connacht in ninth could catch Munster with a victory as they have a superior points’ difference.
Lions: Win and they make the top eight. A bonus-point victory, and a defeat for Leinster and the Bulls, while overturning a negative points differential against the Irish province, could see them finish as high as third in the table. They need to make up a one-point deficit on whatever the Bulls result because their South African rivals have more wins 11-10, so if they finished level on points, the Lions would miss out. The Lions can be overtaken by Munster, Cardiff, Ulster and Connacht and miss out on a top-eight place if a sequence of results went against them.
How teams who finish level on points are separated in the final standings, in order of tie-breaks.
a) the number of league points awarded.
b) if unresolved, the number of matches won by each club in the league stage.
c) if unresolved, the difference between the total points scored and the total points conceded on the field of play for each club.
d) if unresolved, the number of tries scored for each club.
e) if unresolved, the number of points scored on the field of play by each club.
f) if unresolved, the difference between the number of tries scored and the number of tries conceded by each club.
g) if unresolved, the number of players suspended by a disciplinary committee or appeal committee for incidents taking place in the league stage. Club with fewer will be positioned higher.
h) if unresolved, the number of yellow cards received by players. Club with fewer will be positioned higher.
(i) if unresolved, the toss of a coin or as otherwise determined by Pro Rugby Championship in its absolute discretion.
If there is any contention as to what qualifies as a yellow card Pro Rugby Championship is the ultimate arbiter.
