Ahead of what could be a fairly fraught final round of the United Rugby Championship (URC), Irish rugby could actually be on the cusp of a fairly remarkable achievement. In the four previous seasons of the URC in its current format, only once before have all four provinces finished in the top eight. That was three seasons ago and, given the league is now even more fiercely competitive than was the case then, repeating the feat would arguably be an even bigger achievement.
Not even the four South African Super Rugby franchises have ever managed that, and they won’t be doing so this time either, while at best only one of the Welsh quartet will finish in the top eight. Nor will either of the Italian sides reach the playoffs, and only one of the Scottish duo will do so.
Listening to Stuart Lancaster after Connacht’s 26-7 bonus-point win over Munster on Saturday night was, as usual, instructive. “It’s such a tough league,” he stressed. And perhaps more than we appreciate.
He pointed out that in addition to the four South African sides, Glasgow and Benetton are bulk suppliers to Scotland and Italy, while the Welsh quartet are fighting for their lives.
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Of course, like most leagues, an elite has formed. The quartet who have already qualified for the playoffs – Glasgow, Stormers, Leinster and the Bulls – have been ever-presents in the top eight, and so too thus far have Munster.
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Yet 12 of the 16 teams have finished in the top eight over the last four seasons and another two, the Lions and Cardiff, could do so for the first time this season. If they do, that would leave Zebre and the Dragons as the only two sides not to have achieved the feat.
Already, three of last season’s top eight will not reach the playoffs; the star-studded Sharks, Edinburgh and Scarlets. All of which makes for a very fluid and competitive league.
In addition to the Lions, who finished eight points outside the top eight last season, and Cardiff, who missed out by a point, Connacht finished 13th and nine points outside the playoffs last season, while Ulster ended up 14th and 10 points outside the playoffs.
What’s made the improvement in Connacht and Ulster all the better is their brand of rugby, which is suited to the improved weather and their 4G pitches, and also how young Irish players have blossomed under the watch of Lancaster and Richie Murphy.
Only the Lions have offloaded more than Ulster, and when Jude Postlethwaite perhaps overused the ploy in throwing one intercept in their Challenge Cup semi-final win over Exeter, it’s doubtful he was chastised by Murphy or team-mates.
Ulster had 11 offloads that night to Exeter’s four, and Postlethwaite was responsible for four. Keeping the ball off the deck also opened up space in the backfield for the sharp kicking of Nathan Doak and Ben Murphy in the build-up to two of their three second-half tries.
Though it was cruel to see Doak’s tackle in the last play deemed worthy of a penalty try, their 38-all draw with the Stormers last Friday night was a thriller.
Both Irish teams also have big-carrying number eights in Juarno Augustus and Sean Jansen, who scored his seventh try in his last six starts to clinch Connacht’s bonus point against Munster. Jansen recently revealed to Galway Bay FM that Lancaster had warned the players in pre-season that it might take 100 training sessions for his methods to bear fruit.
After Jansen’s try off a maul to beat Glasgow at the end of February – the night when the Dexcom Stadium started to become a fortress – Lancaster reminded them that they’d just had their 100th session that week.
Connacht are now playing like a team who have total trust in their defensive and attacking systems. The latter makes the most of Josh Ioane’s ability to take the ball to the line, but they’re all alert to the possibility of a pass just before or in contact.
The rise of 20-year-old loosehead Billy Bohan and 25-year-old tighthead Sam Illo has been remarkable, and both have the ability to play for Ireland. Now finally injury-free, Illo has been a revelation. Ditto Harry West, whom former Connacht boss Andy Friend rated hugely and who has found his calling at outside entre, and Seán Naughton, another player having a breakthrough season.
If results go Munster’s way on Friday – ie if one of Cardiff, Ulster or Connacht don’t win – their top eight place could already be secured by the time they kick off against the Lions at Thomond Park on Saturday night
Since losing to Leinster for the unveiling of the Clan Stand in January, Connacht has been the second-best form side after the Bulls in the second half of the season, with seven wins from eight and 33 points.
Final tallies of 48 and 50 points (twice apiece) have been the threshold for the top eight in the last four seasons. But, if teams finish level, wins and then points difference will determine placings, so Connacht, though on 49 points in ninth, probably need to beat Edinburgh away on Friday night and hope that Cardiff and/or Ulster (both on 50) slip up at home to the top two of the Stormers and Glasgow. And Edinburgh will be bidding farewell to players and coaches in their final home game.
Ulster, meanwhile, need to match Connacht’s result or better Cardiff’s to ensure a place in the playoffs and next season’s Champions Cup. Ulster also have a route into the latter via the Challenge Cup final, so were they to finish ninth and beat Montpellier on Friday week the eighth-placed side in the URC would miss out on next season’s Champions Cup.
If results go Munster’s way on Friday – ie if one of Cardiff, Ulster or Connacht don’t win – their top eight place could already be secured by the time they kick off against the Lions at Thomond Park on Saturday night.
Alternatively, if the trio all win, Munster could be in must-win territory and the Lions could also be scrapping for the top eight.
This pair have the advantage of kicking off last, after all other results are known. One can understand the TV executives wanting to broadcast all the matches, but for the integrity of the competition, the URC should ensure that all the final-round games kick-off simultaneously.
