Who is the best goalkicker in Ireland?
Based on kick-success percentage, the most accurate current kicker operating in Irish rugby is Sam Gilbert. Good news for Connacht, less so for Andy Farrell. Gilbert is not Irish-qualified. Meanwhile, Ireland’s goalkickers are struggling.
Last week, it was pointed out in these pages that Ireland were the worst goalkicking side after three games of this year’s Six Nations. The recent victory over Wales has only seen Ireland’s stats worsen.
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A run of four games is small enough to dismiss as a blip. When you look at the overall numbers, though, Ireland’s kickers have struggled all year. Be it Sam Prendergast or Jack Crowley, who have dominated the workload at international level, or some of the other pretenders to Ireland’s kicking throne operating at provincial level, Irish rugby has a problem. The country is lacking a reliable kicker.
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According to Opta, Ireland’s expected goalkicking (xGK) success is 83.5 per cent in this year’s Six Nations. Their actual success rate is 70 per cent. The first figure is the second highest in the tournament. The second is the lowest.
Not only are Ireland the worst team in the competition when it comes to actual kick success rate. They are the only side to have underperformed their xGK figure. Translation: when assessing those doing the kicking, the location of the place kick and historical success rate, Ireland are the lone side to have done worse than what the data predicts. They’re missing kicks they absolutely should not be missing.
For those interested, England and France have both outperformed their xGK number by seven per cent. No one will be surprised to see George Ford and Thomas Ramos listed among the tournament’s most efficient kickers. Italy, though, have been the best at outperforming their xGK, doing so by a margin of 11.5 per cent. Bravo, Paolo Garbisi.
Now, the customary warning against overreacting to data focuses on the small sample size. Ireland have missed six kicks in four games, skewing things slightly. What has really inflated the data, though, is the positioning of these kicks. Prendergast’s misses against Italy were not good, based on their location. Neither were Crowley’s against Wales. These efforts at relatively straightforward angles largely explain Ireland’s kicking underperformance.
The key question, then, revolves around the historical data. Is this a blip from Ireland’s outhalves or part of a wider downturn? Unfortunately, the xGK data for games this season before the Six Nations is not available. However, we can look at more basic figures to suggest that Ireland has a problem with reliability across the board.
In all matches played this season, Connacht’s New Zealander Gilbert leads the way in provincial accuracy with a success rate of 89 per cent off the tee. Seán Naughton, also of Connacht, is next up on 88 per cent. Of the Ireland contingent, Harry Byrne is on 76 per cent. Taking in form for both Ireland and Munster this year, Crowley is a hair over 75 per cent, where he is joined by Nathan Doak. Prendergast has struggled to a figure of 68 per cent. (We have discounted Ulster’s Jake Flannery and Leinster’s Charlie Tector – 100 and 83 per cent respectively – as they have attempted fewer than 10 kicks this year.)
The only kickers above 80 per cent are a non Irish qualified option and a pair a 21-year-olds (Jack Murphy and Naughton) who are not the first-choice kickers at their respective provinces. It is hardly pretty reading that the kicking options who have been in the recent Six Nations squad – Crowley, Prendergast, Byrne and Doak – all fall below that threshold.
Of the Ireland contingent, Prendergast has attempted the fewest number of kicks with 38. He has missed 12 of those. Crowley is comfortably in front when it comes to volume with 65 place kicks this year, 16 of which have been missed. Byrne has had 41 attempts while Doak has had 40 (both have missed 10).
All of these misses have had varying degrees of importance, based on a range of other factors. When Crowley missed three kicks against Gloucester in the Champions Cup for instance, these did not harm the side’s chances of winning given the final score of 31-3. The same number of misses against Castres, though, were costly as Munster lost by just two points. Crowley also missed once from the tee when Munster fell by the same margin away to Toulon.
Prendergast’s poor days off the tee have not been as costly this year. His two misses against Italy came in a seven-point win. A pair of misses against Harlequins were also largely irrelevant to the 45-28 scoreline. Prendergast’s two misfires against La Rochelle, though, could well have been costly were it not for Byrne’s last-minute penalty that secured a comeback victory.
Ireland have not been involved in a game where the deficit between the sides has been three points or fewer since November 2024 when beating Australia 22-19. That year, they also beat Argentina by the same margin while also knocking over South Africa by a solitary point thanks to Ciarán Frawley’s drop goal (a man who does not have a successful kick at goal so far this season). Ireland were also beaten by England in a one-point game that year.
In recent times, Ireland’s goal-kicking inaccuracy has not cost them results. This is thanks in large to their Six Nations-leading figures when it comes to converting 22 entries into points (52.9 per cent) and denying opponents from scoring in the red zone (69 per cent). If efficient at both ends of the park, your odds of securing positive try differentials improve, therefore reducing the reliance on kicks at goal.
There will come a day when Ireland are again involved in a three-point game. When that comes, a reliable kicker across the 80 minutes will be required. Based on recent data looking at what is still a reasonably inexperienced group of kickers at international level, Ireland are lacking exactly that.
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