No real obvious back-up number 13

ON RUGBY:Talk of Brian O'Driscoll having played his last game is way too premature, writes GERRY THORNLEY

THE PROBLEM about having a truly great player in any specialist position is there is rarely a ready-made replacement. “Life After Brian” was always going to be a dilemma to exercise the mind of Leinster and Ireland coaches, no less than the rugby public itself, and now, for much of this season anyway, it has come to pass.

It’s an ill wind, and all that, so if nothing else when the day does arrive, at least Leinster and Ireland might then be a little bit more prepared than they are now.

As Paul O’Connell once said, O’Driscoll is something of a rarity in that as well as being his team’s go-to player, he is also the first man you’d have in the trenches alongside you. He has always been ridiculously brave about putting his body on the line and remarkably durable.

All the evidence of one’s eyes and memories of the days without Brian O’Driscoll would suggest Leinster and Ireland have coped, but nonetheless suffered, without O’Driscoll.

Trawling through O’Driscoll’s record however, underlines the point graphically.

O’Driscoll has played 151 times for his province and, remarkably, in 75 of their last 87 Heineken Cup games over a dozen seasons dating back to his debut in a 27-20 win over Leicester in January 1999 at Donnybrook. In those Euro games with O’Driscoll, Leinster’s winning ratio is 74 per cent. In their 12 games without him over that period, their winning ratio dips to 58 per cent.

The drop in Ireland’s winning ratio without their talisman and captain is equally stark. O’Driscoll has played in 117 of Ireland’s last 143 Tests dating back to his debut in Australia on the summer tour of 1998. Their winning ratio with him in those games is 63.7 per cent, which drops to 52 per cent in the 26 games he has missed.

However, even more tellingly, O’Driscoll has played in all but six of Ireland’s last 81 competitive games – ie World Cup and Six Nations matches – and whereas Ireland have had a 70.66 winning return in the 75 competitive games in which he has played, that ratio has dropped to exactly 50 per cent in the six games without him.

No one has really claimed the role of back-up number 13 on the few occasions opportunities have arisen, and Joe Schmidt has a more pressing problem than Declan Kidney, who can peruse over whatever options emerge in the next three months, although given international rugby is another step up again from Heineken Cup, ultimately Kidney’s is perhaps the bigger problem.

Over the years, the most successful deputy for Driscoll at 13 has probably been Gordon D’Arcy, leading first to him being reinvented as a high-class Test number 12 who occasionally filled in at outside centre, but those days are probably gone now and Ireland will want something longer-term to emerge over the next while.

As the Ireland management can certainly “encourage” the provincial coaches to play certain players in certain positions, a pointer or two as to Schmidt’s thinking could emerge over the next couple of weeks. For example, one imagines Kidney and co wouldn’t be wildly enthusiastic to see Isa Nacewa play at 13 – viable option though that would be for Schmidt.

More likely Luke Fitzgerald, who played there in the win away to Saracens last season, Eoin O’Malley, who filled the void in the bonus-point defeat away to Clermont, or Fergus McFadden, who played there last Friday, will wear number 13 in Montpellier next Saturday.

Keith Earls has filled the void in the last three Irish Tests this season without O’Driscoll, but for all his running abilities he needs an extended run there. Hence it would be no surprise to see him re-emerge as Munster’s outside centre, although his projected four to six weeks’ absence is unhelpful for province and country alike.

Unless Nevin Spence and Darren Cave (who have been alternating at 13 for Ulster) emerge very strongly, another option is Tommy Bowe, who has made a decent fist of his outings at number 13 for the Ospreys (and once for the Lions) and ultimately it would be no surprise to see his talents end up there. But he has played his last two games in his more customary position of right wing for the Ospreys where, of course, Kidney has no influence.

Presumably though, Leinster and Ireland have been devising contingency plans, for one always took pronouncements from the Leinster camp last week regarding O’Driscoll’s well-being with a large container of salt. Until Thursday, the party line that O’Driscoll had trained and was available for selection against Munster. When, sure enough, O’Driscoll was not included in the starting line-up, it came with the explanation that “after further testing”, he “has been given an extra week to recover from the “stinger” he suffered during the World Cup.”

During that tournament, O’Driscoll was clearly protecting his weaker shoulder in the tackle, and sometimes suffered if he didn’t. Heaven knows how much pain he has been playing through, or for how long, or what procedures he went through to play in the World Cup. But clearly, he needs an operation to solve the trapped nerve in his neck, and he may even come back refreshed and better for it.

In confirming the news yesterday, O’Driscoll sounded cogent, precise, well-informed, and pragmatic in what he has to go through, and it assuredly helps he’s had a six-month hiatus before after his post-2005 Lions, shoulder operation.

The extent of this operation remains unclear, but even if he were to have a disc removed from his neck and undergo bone grafting, talk of him having played his last game is way too premature. Of course, bearing in mind he is 33 in January and all the miles, hits and injuries he has on the clock, of course there has to be some threat to his career. But the likes of Jonny Wilkinson, Schalk Burger, Rory Best and Jason Leonard (more than once) have returned to play at the highest level after undergoing similar operations.

One thing is sure – O’Driscoll will want to go out on his terms, and it would be no surprise if he was to earmark a return in time for one more historic tilt at the All Blacks next June. And if anybody can come back from this, even at 33, it’s yer man.