RUGBY/Leinster v Cardiff Blues:DESCRIBING THEIR second competitive match of the season in early September as a "must-win" is perhaps a bit excessive, but Leinster haven't lost their opening two Magners League games since the 2003-04 season, when they ultimately finished eighth, a place below Munster.
But the way they extracted defeat from the jaws of victory against an under-strength Glasgow last week heightens the need to kick-start the Joe Schmidt era with victory in their first home game of the campaign.
Even with ring-rustiness, the return of Brian O’Driscoll and Shane Jennings will add the kind of leadership that was missing last week, Jonathan Sexton ought to significantly sharpen their kicking game and control at 10, while Mike Ross will further strengthen their squad.
With Cian Healy and Eoin Reddan in line for their returns off the bench, Schmidt and co also have more options in terms of impact as the game unfolds.
Prior to losing last season’s grand final against the Ospreys in their last competitive outing at the RDS, Leinster had made the D4 venue of a fortress, with 15 league wins in succession, and they will desperately want to restore the feel-good factor with their home supporters.
Blues head coach Dai Young has sought to backtrack a little on his pre-season comments about Welsh teams, such as his, losing their fear factor when going to Irish grounds, perhaps realising Cardiff haven’t beaten Leinster in Dublin for six years and haven’t beaten Leinster in any of their last six meetings.
The Blues continued where they left off last season with some inventive offloading and attacking rugby to extend their unbeaten run in all competitions to nine games by beating Edinburgh at home last week – albeit living offside at the breakdown and at scrum-time.
Their strong, mobile ex-Hurricanes backrower Michael Paterson is set to make his first competitive start, while Tom Davies, Deiniol Jones and Sam Warburton are all promoted from the bench, and the straight-running Dafydd Hewitt comes in for Tom Shanklin to partner Casey Laulala (sensational last week).
In the absence of four established props, Gethin Jenkins, John Yapp, Tau Felise and Gary Powell, it’s a big ask for rookie Davies, making his first league start, and tighthead Scott Andrews, and with Ross back Leinster will surely look to target the scrums. Given ball, though, the Blues’ backs will certainly have a cut and it could be the game of the weekend.
LEINSTER: L Fitzgerald; S Horgan, B O’Driscoll, F McFadden, I Nacewa; J Sexton, I Boss; H van der Merwe, R Strauss, M Ross, N Hines, E O’Donoghue, S O’Brien, S Jennings (capt), J Heaslip. Replacements: J Fogarty, C Healy, S Shawe, M Galarza, D Ryan, E Reddan, I Madigan, E O’Malley.
CARDIFF BLUES: C Czekaj; R Mustoe, C Laulala, D Hewitt, T James; D Parks, R Rees; T Davies, T Rhys Thomas, S Andrews, B Davies, D Jones, M Paterson, S Warburton, X Rush (capt). Replacements: R Williams, J Yapp, F Filise, J Down, B White, L Williams, C Sweeney, G Evans.
Referee: Andy Macpherson (SRU).
Previous meetings: (07-08) Cardiff 19 Leinster 30; Leinster 24 Cardiff 17; (08-09) Cardiff 16 Leinster 16; Leinster 21 Cardiff 20; (09-10) Leinster 23 Cardiff 6; Cardiff 20 Leinster 29.
Betting: 1/3 Leinster, 22/1 Draw, 9/4 Cardiff Blues. Handicap odds (Cardiff +7pts) 10/11 Leinster, 22/1 Draw, 10/11 Cardiff.
Forecast: Leinster to win.
