ANALYSIS: Will he play or won't he? So much of the build-up to tonight's game has focused on the fitness of Damien Duff, but the question shouldn't be will he play, but should he play?
The thing with Duffer is you cannot risk him if he's not close to fully fit. Because of the way he plays, even if he's 70 per cent you can't risk him. It's the extra 30 per cent that is the difference. It's what enables him to go past people. I can understand them giving him every chance, but if there's any doubt about his fitness I don't think he'll play at all.
One of the repercussions of that would be reverting to 4-4-2, which I think Brian Kerr will do even with Duff. If that is the case, then I would go with Doherty up front. Alongside Robbie Keane it would give Ireland the classic big one-little one pairing. And I would also go with Steven Reid on the right, Kevin Kilbane on the left, and exchange Mark Kinsella with Lee Carsley, only because last Saturday Kinsella looked liked someone who hadn't played many games this season. He looked like he didn't have the legs.
By contrast, Carsley has had a good season with Everton and he's the right partner for Matt Holland tonight. Although Holland wasn't good on Saturday, the number of bad games he's had for Ireland have been few and far between. Historically, our middle two have always been athletic, strong, defensively very good, and good at buying a bit of time and space for our wide midfielders.
That's why I'd play Reid. He has the ability to go past people, and if you're going to play Doherty and Keane, the crosses need to come in from wide areas. Kilbane was disappointing on Saturday, but I think all three in midfield failed to grasp the way Ireland were meant to play, and I wouldn't want to throw the baby out with the bath water.
To make the best use of Doherty, the crosses have to come in. He's never going to be the greatest centre-forward, but he knows his limitations and with diagonal balls he will cause problems. If you're whacking it at him from 50 yards all he can do is flick it. But if it comes to him at an angle he can direct a header down.
Having Reid on the right would improve that service. Alright, you might only get 60 minutes or so from him, but at least you've got a better shape - right-sided player on the right, left-sided down the left.
I thought we played some really good football in the first half-hour on Saturday, in terms of ball to feet. But 4-4-2 gives us a different option, and with the personnel available I think it's the best option. Besides, if they think Duff can play for 20 minutes, then stick him on the bench. But if he's injured a muscle behind his knee, then, as a player who's all about balance, pace, and twisting and turning, he's not going to be at his best.
Georgia are missing a few players and if Ireland play this way they'll probably force them back more. When Doherty came on last Saturday, Albania began to play much deeper, which is how the second goal came. Duff also had a half chance and Keane looked like getting in but for a good tackle by Cipi.
If you analyse Keane's performances for Ireland, he's better playing off someone who has aerial presence. Since he came into the side he's played a lot of games alongside Niall Quinn, and Keane, by nature, is a gambler. He likes to take risks, to attempt to to get half a yard on defenders.
If you watch a replay of his goal on Saturday, from behind the Albanian goal, when the ball is headed out his first instinct is to get onside. Then he gambled on the defender making a mistake, which is exactly what happened.
We looked in need of the game on Saturday. About 80 per cent of the players looked in need of a run-out, and I think we'll benefit from that tonight. Also, if we go back to 4-4-2, I don't think we'll be as easy to play through. It'll leave us with fewer grey areas.
It will also give us better defensive width and should produce better performances from John O'Shea and Stephen Carr, as they'll have a marker in front of them. So I expect the team shape and the performance to be better.
I can understand why Kerr changed to the 4-3-1-2, but it's not the 1-2 that need work, it's the 4-3. In a more attacking system, a lot more is asked of the four defenders and the three midfielders. Ireland are great at stopping teams playing, and because of the way we play, we have to be.
It's like putting on a pair of comfortable shoes. We need to revert to our old, good habits. If we do, it may be a bit narrow but I expect us to win. One last effort, another win and we put ourselves in a really good position. Then we can kick our heels back and wait until September.
(in an interview with Gerry Thornley)
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