Irish in trouble if All Blacks are let loose

Warren Gatland/Analysis: Neither side is ideally prepared for this game

Warren Gatland/Analysis: Neither side is ideally prepared for this game. For their first match in six months, the All Blacks are trying out new caps and combinations, with several players who haven't played for a while and haven't had the best of Super 14 campaigns. And the big question about the core of Munster players in the Irish team is whether they can carry on where they left off in Cardiff.

Emotionally that was a massive ask of them, mentally tougher than most games they'll ever have played in and, I'd say, bigger than this weekend in terms of the pressure they felt going into the Biarritz final. In saying that, most of them have been around a while and are pretty experienced.

Even though the All Blacks are missing a few players from what might be called their full-strength team, it's still a pretty strong team and, in particular, it's a very exciting backline, with Ma'a Nonu there and the Blues (Auckland) outside three of Mils Muliaina, Doug Howlett and Joe Rokocoko.

I don't think it makes any difference which two wingers the All Blacks pick from Howlett, Rokocoko, Rico Gear and Sitiveni Sivivatu. All four are world-class, and it's the same whether they play Muliaina or Leon MacDonald.

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And if you go through the rest of the team, apart from Dan Carter, obviously, they're missing Tony Woodcock, Jerry Collins and Ali Williams up front, but that still leaves them only four or five off full-strength.

Chris Jack coming in strengthens them further, and he is another world-class player, not just with his lineout work, but he brings hardness to the forward play, ball-carrying and offloading.

They have a couple of new caps in Clarke Dermody and Greg Rawlinson, and three more on the bench, who'll be feeling the pressure, and there are a lot of guys who didn't have great Super 14s, particularly the Blues contingent. But it can often be the case that players get excited when coming into a different international environment, especially one like this All Blacks set-up.

They'll also be conscious they're getting the first bite at the cherry.

I watched an All Blacks training session during the week and Rokocoko looked really sharp, which the All Blacks management commented on.

The All Blacks will try to target the Irish scrum, because I know they did quite a lot of analysis of John Hayes before the Lions tour. Ireland, for a lot of reasons, particularly if they're to impose their game, but also to keep the number of scrums to a minimum, need to be very accurate with the ball.

Hayes does do a lot of outstanding work in the lineouts, which has been a really strong area of their game for the last few years. Paul O'Connell, as he is for Munster, will be their money man, and they've real strength in their lineout drive, which they'll look to use.

If they get some front-foot ball, Rog is one of the best in the world at putting the ball in the corners or in behind the wingers, and you wouldn't say Howlett and Rokocoko are the best in the world when forced to turn.

I thought Ireland became a lot more aggressive defensively in the Six Nations, and used the ball a lot smarter. Running the ball in your half can be a good tactic, but they overdid it in the autumn, and in the Six Nations they played territory as well. Ireland went from being the team that kicked the ball the most, and passed it the least, two years ago, to being the team that kicked it the least, and passed it the most, this year.

Ireland cope quite well when the game is structured, but if it gets a little bit loose, the All Blacks start offloading and go through the phases, they might struggle, which might partly be why the All Blacks have picked two opensides. You wouldn't say Ireland have a traditional number seven, and the All Blacks are also mindful of how good Brian O'Driscoll and Gordon D'Arcy are in forcing turnovers in midfield. They'll be looking to keep the ball alive, and Irish sides are not exposed too often to this kind of high tempo game, except when they face sides like Toulouse.

Ireland will really have to get in among the All Blacks, and stop them getting their momentum and offloading game going. They've got to eliminate that from the start by being very aggressive in defence, the tackle area and the breakdown.

I've been surprised at how bullish Eddie O'Sullivan and the leading players have been. I know they weren't at full-strength in November, but a lot of this squad played then and were on the Lions tour. The biggest challenge facing O'Sullivan, the management and some of the leading players will be convincing the rest of the squad.

You can say the right things but everybody has to buy into that and believe they can win. My experience was always that one or two didn't. If they get all 22 believing it, they've got a great chance; if one or two don't, then I think they'll lose.

My head says New Zealand will have more. I think they'll be incredibly motivated to do well in their first game of the year at home. There's such stiff competition for places. And the big difference, I feel, could be the greater size, physicality and pace of their backline.

(In an interview with Gerry Thornley)