Irish edge will prove too sharp

On the face of it, this doesn't look the most eye-catching of kick-offs, particularly at 1.30pm. Anything less than a secure, eighth successive Irish win against last season's wooden spoonists would be amiss.

But it could be quite interesting.

After Ireland's steady dip in ambition, confidence, performance and results over the last year (with defeats against their last four frontline opponents), today should offer proof of a renaissance. Not only have Munster and Leinster provided a shot in the arm, but Ireland arrive at the Six Nations in a sudden state of relatively rude health.

Brian O'Driscoll and Paul O'Connell are back to give an injection of the world-class ability, player empowerment and leadership which were sorely lacking in the autumn.

And like them, almost everybody else in this Irish team - and a good few on the outside - appears to be in prime form.

Helpfully too, there's been almost no mention or forecast of Ireland winning the championship or the Grand Slam. Sneaking up from the pack as dark horses is much more Ireland's terrain.

A more telling pointer towards Ireland's chances might be how they go about getting the result than the result itself. Ireland kicked the ball more than anyone else in last season's championship, and passed the ball less than anyone less. A less structured, more expansive, daring approach would surely suit the needs of this team, both in the short and longer term.

No less than the ultra-physical Italians, or the game's heavyweights, Ireland aren't equipped to win by trench warfare or percentages.

Of course, there'll be no avoiding some of that. The all-Munster Irish frontrow might conceivably have to face up to two ultra-physical Italian frontrows today, judging by their bench. The inches earned or lost in the mauls could be just as hard.

But surely the way to go is to avoid the fringes and unnecessary rucks, to emphasise keeping the ball in the hands - even if it means a greater risk of error - and to create space for gamebreakers such as O'Driscoll, Gordon D'Arcy and Geordan Murphy.

"Well, I think you move the ball away from them as much as you can," coach Eddie O'Sullivan said yesterday in reference to today's game. "If you're playing against them, it's important that you take them on at their strengths, like you do with any other team, and certainly their strength is in their forwards. We'll try and confront them in places where we feel there's an advantage."

In the heel of the hunt, Ireland have outscored the Azzurri by 19 tries to two in the last four meetings. Unlike the gale of two seasons ago, the forecast is again good. There should be no unfamiliarity with the Gilbert ball, as happened to Ronan O'Gara when using its Mitre counterpart in Rome 12 months ago.

Allowing for opening day rustiness, all is set pretty fair, and while it's true the Italians traditionally start the Six Nations well, this is, curiously, the first time in seven years they've had to begin their campaign away from Rome.

The 1.30pm start is indeed a little unnerving. Think back to last season, when Ireland's Grand Slam journey was derailed by France at the same - shall we say - less sociable time. Irish crowds don't really do lunchtime kick-offs. So Ireland, perhaps with some help from an unsuspectingly competitive Italian side, will need to generate their own heat on a cold winter's day.

So what do we make of this year's Azzurri? By comparison to the other contestants, they're usually something of an unknown quantity coming into the opening weekend, and particularly so this year. Their summer tour of Australia and Argentina, and their autumn Tests against Tonga, Argentina and Fiji, were a little off the beaten track.

And they have a new coach, Pierre Berbizier.

With eight of the same XV and 13 of the same 22 which faced Ireland in Rome 12 months ago, there are plenty of familiar faces, and presumably they will again have strong set-pieces, and plenty of go-forward ball from their maul and close-in rumblers.

As painful as they've been to play against, it could be just as painful to watch them painstakingly work their possession into scores. Under Berbizier there have been rumours of a change in emphasis to attack more through their back line and an improved rate in tries out wide. The rediscovered, rejuvenated Ramiro Pez appears to have provided much of the catalyst for this.

In the remarkable, 30-29 win over the Pumas in Cordoba - when the latter were at full-strength after the return of their Stade Francais trio, albeit a week after the French Championship final - Pez kicked six from six, scored one try and gave the scoring pass for the other two.

Apparently, the Italians and Pez, averaging over 92 per cent with his kicking, carried on in the same vein against Tonga and against the Pumas, despite losing 39-22, before outmuscling Fiji on a snowy day in Monza.

It remains to be seen, but presumably Pez still isn't a paid-up member of the Ollie Campbell-Jonny Wilkinson school of tackling outhalves.

O'Driscoll spoke during the week of the Italians employing more of an aggressive defensive system too.

Still, while they can set their stall out over the first phase or two, when faced by high-tempo attacking, whether through setpieces or quick phases, and especially off counter-attacks or turnovers, they have struggled.

Wales exposed this frailty more than anyone last season, while Ireland have generally profited the most when attacking the outside channels. And with a converted scrumhalf on the wing and Cristian Stoica reverting to fullback, Ireland's likeliest source of joy still looks to be out wide.

In a way, a nation is expectant.

Overall head-to-head: Played 12, Ireland 9 wins, Italy 3 wins.

Last five meetings: 2005: Ireland won 28-17 (Rome); 2004: Ireland won 19-3 (Dublin); 2003: Ireland won 61-6 (Limerick); 2003: Ireland won 37-13 (Rome); 2002: Ireland won 32-17 (Dublin).

Five-game formguide: Ireland: 44-12 v Japan (a); 47-12 v Japan (a); 7-45 v New Zealand (h); 14-30 v Australia (h); 43-12 v Romania (h). Italy: 21-35 v Argentina (a); 30-29 v Argentina (h); 48-0 v Tonga (h); 22-39 v Argentina (h); 23-8 v Fiji.

Five year Six Nations standings: Ireland: 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd. Italy: 6th, 6th, 5th, 5th, 6th.

Odds (Paddy Power): 1/50 Ireland, 50/1 Draw, 12/1 Italy. Handicap betting (=Italy +25pts) 10/11 Ireland, 25/1 Draw, 10/11 Italy.

Forecast: Ireland to win by 15-20 points.