Galway's changes for the better to tilt balance

History has something for everyone in this afternoon's Bank of Ireland All-Ireland final replay. One little known fact about replays is that the team which makes more changes from the drawn match is considerably more likely to win. Only one team has lost a replay after making more changes than their opponents. Lest this depress an unchanged Kerry, that exception was actually the only previous Galway-Kerry replay in 1938. But it was won by Galway.

Central to this afternoon's outcome will be the resolution of one question. To what extent was Galway's failure to turn up for the first 25 minutes of the drawn match an indicator that they were off the pace or further evidence that there are periods when no team can live with Kerry.

A belief that the former comes closer to reality underpins the feeling here that Galway will win. John O'Mahony has made the point that Kerry were by some distance the best team the Connacht champions had faced this season. Consequently, and given the absence of serious provincial competition, they struggled two weeks ago in a manner that wasn't foreseen.

Because 11 of the team had started the 1998 final, it was felt - not least here - that having survived the semi-final with Kildare, Galway should have enough experience to pick up the pace of the final. But that wasn't true. The skies were thick with the beating wings of chickens coming home to roost as Galway's defence disintegrated.

Yet, to an extent, the backs were only picking up the tab for failings elsewhere. The whole team froze or at least struggled to come to terms with the pace. When the match got on to an even keel, they conceded only six points in the remaining 45 minutes.

Richie Fahey and, more obviously, Kevin Walsh deserve their chances. As an added bonus their selection doesn't undermine the options on the bench. Ray Silke's robust mentality means he should be well able to cope with entering the fray if necessary and Joe Bergin will be on hand to assist without the pressure of having to start.

Given the well-attested gap in tactical acumen between the respective managers, it says a lot for the quality of Kerry's players that this match remains so finely balanced. But the problem for Kerry goes deeper than questionable tactical calls. It's impossible to avoid the suspicion that misjudgment on the line plays a role in creating the unease which sweeps across the team for long periods in every match.

The first-half return on the type of dominance Kerry exercised was poor and it's safe to say that those opening 25 minutes may well represent the high point of the team's control in this year's final. Given the team's tendency to hit form early and draw back into its shell, the question on Maurice Fitzgerald's deployment comes into focus.

There's no inclination here to argue with the Kerry selectors' view that Fitzgerald is not up to 70 minutes. The more pertinent question is how best to exploit what's in his tank and the answer - particularly with five substitutes allowed - may be to start rather than finish with him.

Kerry's goal-scoring capacity is poorer in his absence. Apart from in the Munster final against Clare, the county hasn't scored a goal from play all season when Fitzgerald was on the bench. This isn't to be glib about the three penalties dispatched by Dara O Cinneide, but the impact of Fitzgerald in his limited time on the pitch has the potential greatly to enhance goal-scoring prospects.

This potential would be more readily tapped were O Se to use him deeper in the attack. As was being pointed out in Kerry during the week, Brian Lacey and Ronan McCarthy each proved over the last two years that Fitzgerald struggles in tightly-marked isolation.

Nonetheless there remains a doubt as to how Fitzgerald will be used. It's not the only doubt facing Kerry. Having failed to cope with Kevin Walsh the last day, what is there in the history of the Darragh O Se-Donal Daly partnership at centrefield to suggest that they will do better today?

If centrefield is competitive, what is there to suggest that the Kerry half lines will win the sort of possession that launched wave after wave of attack the last day? Maybe Tom O'Sullivan will again switch to centre back, where he played far better than when he followed Tommy Joyce to the wing. And what is there to suggest that Kerry won't fade out for significant phases as they have done all season?

There are too many such questions surrounding Kerry. Galway never hit their highest performance levels and still could have won. With the draw under their belt and changes promising a more even performance, they should prove that they're the one thing Kerry aren't: better than the sum of their parts. That should be enough.

Galway: Martin McNamara; Tomas Meehan, Gary Fahey, Richie Fahey; Declan Meehan, John Divilly, Sean de Paor; Kevin Walsh, Sean O Domhnaill; Tommy Joyce, Padraig Joyce, Michael Donnellan; Derek Savage, Paul Clancy, Niall Finnegan.

Kerry: Declan O'Keeffe; Mike Hassett, Seamus Moynihan (c), Mike McCarthy; Tomas O Se, Eamonn Fitzmaurice, Tom O'Sullivan; Darragh O Se, Donal Daly; Aodan MacGearailt, Dara O Cinneide, Noel Kennelly; Michael Francis Russell, Liam Hassett, John Crowley.

Referee: Brian White (Wexford).

Throw-In: Croke Park, 3.30. ON TV: Network 2.