SOCCER: Should Manchester United win this afternoon Alex Ferguson's brief victory speech will be as well mapped out as a free-kick manoeuvre on the training-ground whiteboard. We can expect praise of his side's consistency, a nod to Crystal Palace's commitment and, above all, a remark about the recent dip in Chelsea's performances.
Does he really see his team regaining the title or is this just the coping mechanism of a manager who knows his league season was hobbled at the start? It is unlikely he foresees a rip-roaring recovery this year, even if Chelsea may lead by a mere three points when, with two fixtures in hand, they kick off against Norwich at 5.15pm this evening.
Ferguson will derive only small encouragement from recollections of 1996. A team written off by Alan Hansen for their inexperience literally became comeback kids by reeling in Newcastle. Nonetheless, the Old Trafford manager is too keen a student of the game to be mesmerised by so flawed an analogy.
Chelsea have played 27 matches to United's 28 and are six points ahead. Newcastle were leading by only four points at the same moment in 1996 and could already feel themselves slithering. What is more, their very next game was against United and the visitors pounced on the opportunity with a win at St James' Park.
Kevin Keegan's "I would really, really love it" rant about United came with a mere two fixtures left, but his side had been displaying signs of strain long before that. Newcastle were relished for their verve but were highly vulnerable when the opposition did not succumb to the off-the-cuff football.
Their manager was temperamentally uninterested in seeking to outlast opponents on a monochrome winter's day. Though David Batty was bought from Blackburn, Keegan's truly noteworthy mid-season signing was Faustino Asprilla. The erratic Colombian with the knotty private life was never going to bring calm and focus to St James' Park despite his talent.
There was not the smallest possibility that Jose Mourinho would act in Keeganesque fashion at Stamford Bridge. He has a taste for disciplined players and it is a matter of honour with the Portuguese that his teams force victories even when below their best. They are designed for it.
United cannot even know exactly when they will get their own opportunity to beat Mourinho's Chelsea for the first time in four attempts in all competitions. They are supposed to meet at Old Trafford on April 16th, but Ferguson's side will be engaged in the FA Cup that weekend unless they lose their quarter-final at Southampton.
There are no real precedents to reinforce United's faith that they can recover in the league this season. Nine years ago, inspired by Eric Cantona, they had eights wins, a draw and a defeat in their closing 10 matches. A repeat of that would most likely not be good enough against a Chelsea team whose next four opponents are all clustered at the foot of the table.
It is still theoretically possible, of course, that they will stumble badly, and Ferguson does know from morose experience how tough it is to check the momentum of failure. On January 10th, 1998, with a game more played, United led Arsenal by 12 points, but they could extract no more than a solitary point from the following three fixtures with Southampton, Leicester and Bolton.
The Highbury club eventually landed the title with a couple of matches to spare. Though Ferguson pinned some of the blame on injuries, he was honourable enough to recognise the irresistible football of a line-up Arsene Wenger had suddenly put together.
The Arsenal manager, along with players such as Nicolas Anelka, Emmanuel Petit and Marc Overmars, was in his first full season in England. United were taken by surprise, but they had started to stumble in January. Sure-footed Chelsea are at a far more advanced stage in the campaign.
Ferguson, of course, did overhaul Arsenal two years ago. Who can fail to visualise him going on to the Highbury pitch to commune with the United fans after the 2-2 draw in April 2003?
All the same, Arsenal had held an advantage of only seven points over United on St Stephen's Day 2002, and their deterioration was rapid. It is taking far longer to make Chelsea feel any anxiety.
The scale of the task was not anticipated and it was generally supposed that Mourinho would need months to settle in England. In fact, he instantly put himself at ease by beating United on the opening weekend.
United have played the best football in the Premiership in winning 10 out of their last 11 fixtures, but the surge seems to have come too late. Revenge on Mourinho may have to keep.
