THE incongruous combination of, firstly, all the talk of injuries and loss of key personnel on both sides with, secondly, the conviction on the part of some that Down on the verge of storming the championship for one last time, has made their Bank of Ireland Ulster football championship match with Donegal at Clones tomorrow an oddly compelling affair.

Odd because neither team has much in the way of recent credentials. A year ago Down were All Ireland champions and widely, if not deeply, favoured to beat Donegal in the preliminary round. Donegal had lost the League final to Derry only seven days previously and were carrying a number of injuries.

Now the main difference in the circumstances of the teams is one of marked decline. Down are reduced to being McKenna Cup holders and Donegal, having spectacularly failed to build on beating Down in last year's championship, have lost to Derry again in the recent League final, but this time by a more substantial margin.

Based on a cursory analysis of last year's fixture between the teams, it's easier to see Down winning. There were a number of reasons why Donegal won the corresponding match last year.

Firstly, Down played a team that while strong on paper, was palpably lacking in match fitness of some players hadn't lined out for the county since the previous September's All Ireland success. This time, they have left very little to chance, with only Greg Blaney's full fitness in any doubt.

Secondly, Donegal used their momentum from the previous week's League final to hit the deck running in the championship. Losing gave them a motivational edge which they used well and, with only seven days between the matches, their focus had to be razor sharp.

This year, the League defeat was more depressing and they have had three weeks to dwell on it.

Thirdly, Donegal, despite being threatened by a massive injury list, managed to field their strongest 15. Tomorrow they line out with five starting debutantes, nearly all of whom owe their places to the indisposition of injured colleagues.

Fourthly, last year was a match during which Donegal thrived at midfield. This year neither Martin Gavigan nor Brian Murray is able to play, whereas Down's Conor Deegan (who played while crocked 12 months ago), is fit and looking sharp as a tack.

Fithly Mickey Linden suffered a considerable hangover after the champagne of 1994 and was largely ineffective last year. He is currently regarded by one knowledgeable and objective observer as being as sharp and fast as he ever was.

Finally, the Donegal half forwards who did so much to control the tempo of last year's match do not look as formidable. James McHugh hasn't had a comfortable amount of competitive match practice, and Pat Hegarty, who ran the show 12 months ago, hasn't since produced a performance of anything like the same substance.

In Donegal's favour is the current good form of Manus Boyle, whose performance in the League final was one of the few consolations the county could take from the afternoon.

It would be a distortion to say that there are no questions concerning Down, but they suggest better answers. Here are a few.

One, they are lacking an uncomfortable number of their best team Ross Carr, Eamonn Burns and Barry Breen.

Only Burns, however, is a total loss. Carr's absence is offset to an extent by Shorty Treanor's reliable, left footed for taking and Patrick Sloan's physical presence on the wing, whereas Breen an integral element of Down at their best is named on the bench and can be expected to make an appearance at some stage, if needed.

Two, Greg Blaney's placing in the left corner of the attack bespeaks a certain queasiness about his fitness levels and the attack won't move as well without him leading it. His replacement at centre forward, Treanor, was deemed surplus to requirements in his prime six years ago and can hardly have improved since.

Treanor at centre forward is capable of posing an attacking threat but Blaney's reversion or the lack of it if he's not able may be necessitated by other considerations. One of the reasons that led to Treanor's fall from grace was his difficulty adapting an individual game to the good of the team.

He would be content to play his own game and let Noel Hegarty play his, which would be a net minus for the team as Donegal depend on their captain's facility on the ball when building attacks.

Blaney would be unlikely to tolerate such a "live and let live" accommodation.

Three James McCartan wasn't in good form in the McKenna final, and unless he's buzzing the attack isn't anywhere near full"

The best answer to this reservation is history. In nearly every big match Down have played, McCartan has raised his game. Even during the team's worst days, his appetite for the occasion has impressed.

Some of the more fanciful talk about Down's prospects ignores the march of time and the evident difficulty experienced in winning critical relegation matches in Division Two. You don't, however, have to believe they'll win an All Ireland to fancy them for tomorrow.