Doubles or quits is the name of the game

On Rugby:This time last year, Irish rugby was desperately seeking something positive from the provinces after a dismal autumnal Test series. Whereas the return to the provinces would have been a welcome relief from the mood in the international camp, now the provinces will be looking to feed off Ireland's excellent autumn. And the wins over Australia, South Africa and the Pacific Islands can only have a positive, drip-feed effect.

In the next two pivotal, back-to-back weekends, Munster, Leinster and Ulster face Cardiff, Agen and London Irish knowing that successive wins would go a long way toward securing a coveted quarter-final. Yet, unsurprisingly, they are dastardly difficult doubles to achieve.

Nothing quite stokes a team psychologically like the whiff of vengeance in their nostrils and teams that lose in the first of these clashes, especially if they have the return tie at home, are usually seriously "up for it".

Last season was unusual in that nine of the 12 back-to-back meetings over weeks three and four of the pool stages yielded doubles. Prior to that though, over the previous three seasons the average of completed doubles was exactly 50 per cent. Three seasons ago, only five of the 12 head-to-heads on successive weekends resulted in back-to-back wins.

Closer examination of the three Irish provinces is even more revealing - in part because only one of their 21 back-to-back meetings was against Italian opposition. Even Munster, who have qualified for the knock-out stages in each of the last eight campaigns, have completed only four doubles out of seven, and one of them was provided by facile 64-0 and 55-22 wins over Viadana.

Similarly, Leinster have also only completed four doubles out of seven and nothing better highlights the difficulties of beating the same opponents back-to-back than their experiences at this point over the last two years.

A couple of seasons ago, Leinster beat Bourgoin 92-17 at Lansdowne Road, yet the following Friday night they were indebted to a late virtuoso try by Brian O'Driscoll at Stade Pierre Rajon to secure a 27-23 victory. Last December, Leinster beat the same opponents 53-7 at Lansdowne Road, only to lose the return by 30-28 seven days later.

This recent case history looks particularly pertinent vis-à-vis the upcoming matches with Agen. Ensconced in a sort of mid-table anonymity domestically, Agen's 19-13 loss at Brive last weekend was their eighth defeat out of eight away games in the Top 14 this season, whereas they have won seven out of eight league matches at Stade Armandie; the exception being a 13-6 loss to Perpignan.

Domestically, they have been far from free-scoring, although the mercurial Rupeni Caucaunibuca has only recently returned to the fold after his extended pre-season in Fiji. Yet they have taken a real liking to their second Heineken European Cup campaign judging by their slightly fortunate late win at home to Edinburgh and their stunning, five-try 32-26 win away to Gloucester.

Leinster have kept ticking over impressively enough with Magners Celtic League home wins over the Dragons and Glasgow, while Saturday's gutsy 6-6 draw away to Ulster was testimony to their under-rated pack and spirit. Against that though, their infuriating, partly self-inflicted defeat away to Edinburgh has given them little room for manoeuvre and Felipe Contepomi's ill-timed absence from their crunch month has been compounded by a propping crisis.

Had Ronan O'Gara been outhalf for Leinster in the endgame in Edinburgh, the thought occurred he'd have dropped into the pocket and landed a winning drop goal. Thanks for the game, goodnight, we're outta here. With Contepomi, it's more of a rollercoaster ride and if he's patently culpable for some of their defeats, he's usually the instigator of their wins. It'll be duller and more difficult without him.

Fosi Pala'amo will only be sidelined for the next couple of weeks. Unfortunately, they're the wrong couple of weeks, given Will Green is also out for a month or so, besides which the Samoan's scrummaging hasn't impressed. So, rather than register Pala'amo by tomorrow's deadline, it looks like Leinster will take a punt on Northland's Stan Wright, an ever-present in the New Zealand Provincial Championship over the last two years.

Wright will probably start against Agen, and Michael Cheika's other choices are between Andy Dunne and Christian Warner at outhalf, and Owen Finegan or Stephen Keogh at blindside. Saturday's evidence will have given him little conclusive proof regarding the former, where Dunne has the advantage of being a more proven kicker both on and off the ground, but surely pointed to Keogh starting in the backrow. Even without Contepomi and with a newly constructed scrum, they should have enough in their locker this Saturday anyway.

Ulster, for their part, have never once completed back-to-back wins over the same opponents in the last seven years which, perhaps, is not too surprising given they have still to record their first away European Cup win in either France or England.

But, given recent history has shown us that five wins and around 22 or 23 points is the threshold for securing a home quarter-final, like Leinster they've little room for manoeuvre. In short, Ulster need to buck that trend forthwith.

One constant throughout the many ups and occasional downs from the premier European competition has been the consistency of Connacht in the European Challenge Cup, where they have qualified for the quarter-finals in each of the last four seasons. That run has never been in such great jeopardy as now, however, after cruel last-kick defeats to Harlequins and Bath in a run of acutely frustrating losses for Michael Bradley's men.

At least it shows they need have no inferiority complex for those return meetings, but if they are to have any meaning, a nine point haul from their back to back meetings with Montpellier looks like a minimum requirement.

It's never easy in Europe, to coin a cliché, but if it was, it wouldn't be so much fun.