WORLD CUP ANALYSIS:Beating Russia and a big performance against Italy would make a super RWC for the USA and Eddie O'Sullivan
WITH EXACTLY 59 minutes and 44 seconds gone in the Tri-Nations final, “dreamboat” Wallaby outhalf Quade Cooper stood on the halfway line ready to kick off. His side had eclipsed the All Blacks for 40 minutes but, in true New Zealand style, they pulled back level by scoring two tries – it took 19 minutes.
The All Blacks caught Cooper’s kick-off and rumbled infield through hooker Keven Mealamu. Typically, Dan Carter pumped the ball down town; the clock stood at 60 minutes and six seconds. From the right hand touchline inside their 10-metre line and with two wide flat passes, Wallaby fullback Kurtley Beale carried into All Black traffic at full pace.
It was a slow, slow ball so Australian scrum half Will Genia found hefty Ben McCalman relatively close to the breakdown. The next ball was not much faster so Genia found David Pocock, but this time he was stacked to hit the last All Black fatty fringe defender. This ball was quicker and off Genia set as Mealamu and secondrow Samuel Whitelock reshuffled into the open side defence; time was against them and Genia knew it so he crossed through the channels, confusing the defence, and ran through them, setting in motion his blindside winger Digby Ioane, who popped to the original carrier fullback Beale to score.
Kick-off to try? One minute and two seconds; time from Carter’s clearance kick to try – 40 seconds. Score 25-20.
As Pocock received the ball for that last contact with the All Blacks you could have been in the RDS watching Leinster; Shane Jennings into contact, Eoin Reddan’s lateral run forcing doubt in the defence before finding Luke Fitzgerald flying in from his wing up the heart of the defence, with Isa Nacewa dancing his way on Fitzgerald’s shoulder for a super try. We’ve seen it buckets of times, it’s in them.
Why not in an Irish jersey? Australia are coached by a Kiwi, as are Leinster. Both sides play a similar game, slow, slow, fast. The question for Ireland’s former coach and next hurdle will be; which Irish team will turn up tomorrow? Will it be the Leinster one or the struggling one? The answer to this question has huge relevance for Eddie O’Sullivan.
The USA are in no way capable of denting this Irish side; all things being equal. After all, the Irish Wolfhounds have managed them with reasonable ease. But all things are not equal. Firstly, the USA simply can’t perform four matches in a row in the time given, 17 days.
The gamble for O’Sullivan is worth debating. Facing Ireland, Russia, Australia and finally Italy in 17 days what would you do? Beating Russia is huge for the USA and a performance against Italy would make a super RWC for them. I debated this issue with the lineout coach himself based in Los Angeles, aka Fat Denis or known to his family as Gavin Hickie – the hooker, not the slim winger.
There is an appetite for rugby in the US through its colleges and coastal towns but the US simply don’t back a sport that doesn’t make money independently (TV etc). Hickie hopes to give back to US rugby what he gained from his time at Leinster and Leicester before injury struck; through coaching in California.Tough job!
The country is very professional but the rugby is third class, with many university programs scraping by. Very few can earn a living from the game, including coaches, and as O’Sullivan himself noted, many of the players simply won’t be able to afford to continue playing if they are not picked up by European clubs post-RWC.
The distance involved in playing the domestic league makes it almost impossible to manage work and home life. This is a world away from how Irish rugby has evolved.
The challenge for O’Sullivan tomorrow is balancing the obvious “day that’s in it” 9/11 with the 17 days of pool time. In doing so he must decide is it worth challenging Ireland? Based on our last month (indeed year) and with injuries/form throughout that time, the answer is an obvious yes.
If that is his conclusion then the breakdown is key to foiling Ireland, who have lost the customary/expected ferociousness which has made up for the lack of quality or physique compared to the top nations. It’s a big gamble but Georgia managed it. In doing so there’ll be no Irish try as described above.
Of course O’Sullivan might admit to himself it’s simply not worth taking the chance on a rusty Irish team turning up and prepare accordingly. Not knowing the “Test” Irish team I assume that close to a full Irish side has been selected in preparation for the Wallabies. I certainly hope they are, amongst themselves only, preparing to beat Australia.
If that be the case then their game plan tomorrow should give us some clues into how. The personnel tasked with doing so is equally crucial; numbers 4, 6, 7, 9, 12, 13 and 15. I firmly believe Seán O’Brien, when fit, should stay at 6, with Jennings given a man- marking role on Pocock. If O’Brien is at 7 then Ireland gain but also lose enormously. Based on the England game it would be abject lunacy to exclude Stephen Ferris, so into 4 he should go but he’s at 6 tomorrow and another game will do him wonders.
Reddan’s game is borne from Wasps and a dominant clear-out tomorrow would allow him to poke holes in any defence. His front five have not helped his style. But Conor Murray gets the nod and is certainly worth a look where he will reap the rewards from a fired-up front five.
Good for confidence but tailor your emotions to the quality of opposition. Midfield is a concern as it has not provided any tangible punch.With Anthony Trimble on the bench Jonny Sexton looks like centre cover; interesting!
In summary we won’t know what O’Sullivan’s plan is until we see it and, it being 9/11, emotions will be very high so I expect a fight from his men.
I also expect this Irish side to prioritise the breakdown clearance, thereby speeding up the ball and allowing much more potency on possession and options for Murray. In the final 30 minutes O’Sullivan will start pulling his stars home in preparation for Russia in four days, the floodgates will open and all will be well in Irish rugby, confidence back and the Wallabies in our sights! It’s a big day for the US of A and for very different reasons it’s big day for Ireland too.
PS. Hickie’s thoughts can be found on http://www.lineoutcoach.com or if you’re desperate for up to the minute, @LineoutCoach.
