All the fun is just starting

European Cup:The Heineken European Cup returns with the concluding two rounds of group action as a means of whittling 24 teams down to eight from six pools. It is not a perfect system, but that's partly what adds to the fun, and the next two weekends promise to be as enthralling and perplexing as they've ever been. Gerry Thornleyreports

All told, roughly 13 teams, perhaps 14 at a push, still nurture hopes of reaching the coveted knockout stages at the end of March but only three approach this weekend's penultimate round unbeaten: Munster, Llanelli and Biarritz.

Of those, as was expected from the outset, the French champions and last season's beaten finalists are cruising through the Group of Snooze at the expense of the lowest ranked qualifiers from England, Scotland and Italy, and should do so this evening without breaking sweat and with a game to spare. In the process they ought also to procure a lucrative home quarter-final in San Sebastien for the third year running.

Northampton also look sure to qualify as one of the two best runners-up, possibly with as much as 24 points, and might even entertain hopes of toppling Biarritz from their perch in Pool Six next weekend. This would leave only one other runners-up spot from the remaining five pools.

Although Ulster will have something to say about this in Ravenhill tomorrow, Llanelli are next best placed to reach the last eight and most probably with a home quarter-final after their brace of dramatic if slightly fortunate wins over Toulouse to eliminate the three-time champions. Even if they were to lose in Belfast, a home finale against London Irish leaves them with one foot already in the last eight.

Munster and Leinster are better placed than they were at this stage a year ago, and are in the driving seats in Pools Four and Two. Yet each look like they will be chased home by the English sides they overcame on the opening round in October, all the way to potentially epic return meetings next weekend.

The Tigers have been more akin to a dog with a bone since their 21-19 defeat to Munster in Welford Road and a bonus point win for Leicester at home to Cardiff today will keep the pool alive until their seismic showdown in Thomond Park tomorrow week.

The holders would probably have one foot in the quarters were they to beat Bourgoin in Geneva on Sunday, although that's hardly a sure thing given the sometimes moody French outfit look compelled to put their best foot forward in their Swiss shop window.

Either way, it looks as if they Munster will have to beat Leicester again next Saturday when protecting their 26-match Cup-winning run in the competition at their Limerick fortress before it is closed for redevelopment. Who writes their scripts anyway?

Were the sides to finish level on points, first place would come down to the head-to-head record in their two meetings. The first criterion would be match points, the second tries, and the third points aggregate over the two games. Munster lead these categories by four match points to one, by two tries to one, and by 21-19.

Leinster, who lead Gloucester by four points, have a better head-to-head record to defend from the first meeting if it comes down to it, having beaten Gloucester by 37-20, with a bonus point, and by four tries to two in the sides' first meeting in October.

Were Gloucester to slip up in Agen tonight, then Leinster could even clinch the pool and a place in the knockout stages for the fifth time in six years by beating Edinburgh tomorrow. But the likelihood is that this group will also go down to the wire at a packed and partisan Kingsholm next Friday night.

Either way, the threshold for a home quarter-final has been 23 points on two of the last three years with the bonus points system, and so to earn a home quarter-final Leinster will most probably have to win their two remaining games.

Without wishing to tempt fate, quite where the two Irish sides would host putative home quarter-finals given Thomond and Lansdowne will be closed is a moot point. As an aside, for example, it's not beyond the bounds of possibility that Munster's reward for winning all six matches and beating Leicester twice could be a third meeting with the Tigers in the last eight.

Leinster, too, could easily "host" English opposition. But that is a problem either of them, along with many others, would love to have at this juncture.