Jobs growth is set to significantly undershoot Government targets, with a substantial proportion of labour supply needing to come from outside the State, an internal presentation from the Department of Enterprise shows.
The paper, drawn up in April of last year for senior civil servants in the department, analyses constraints on growing the labour force out to 2030.
It contains estimates showing the labour force increasing to 3.1 million people in 2030 – made up of 2.9 million people working and 135,000 unemployed – with employment and labour force growth projected to slow from 2.4 per cent in 2024 to 0.7 per cent by 2030.
The presentation, drawn up by the Labour Market and Skills Unit within the department, starkly points out that this is significantly below the programme for government target of creating 300,000 extra jobs by 2030.
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“In terms of numbers, this points to an increase of 196,000 in employment relative to 2024, well below the employment targets in the programme for government,” the officials wrote.
It points out that additions to the labour force are expected to moderate as overall economic growth slows against a backdrop where participation rates are already “close to historic highs”.
The officials outlined that their analysis “shows how tight the Irish labour market currently is” with the size of labour supply a “real constraint to meeting the Government’s target”.
The analysis says it is “essential” to activate those outside the labour force and to attract international workers, noting that within migration a “substantial proportion of the labour supply will have to be sourced from outside the EEA (European Economic Area) via employment permits”.
Scenarios studied envisage a total of between 201,000 and 338,000 new employment permits until 2030. The department said these are “illustrative” rather than forecasts.
The presentation says an “integrated approach is imperative” and economic migration “should not be regarded as a mechanism for importing low-cost labour”, and advocates an approach across Government to attract labour to support enterprise.
There is, it points out, a “real need to ensure that migrants have access to the building blocks necessary for successful integration into Irish life” – such as healthcare, childcare, education, housing and public transport.
It also analyses untapped labour market supply, finding that increases between 2019 and 2024 were primarily driven by increased female participation. It finds it “likely that further increases in participation rates will be limited”, with females in the workforce at a historically high level and above the euro-area average.
In response to queries, the department says it has new data since the presentation was drawn up, adding “none of which contradicts what we have said”. A spokesman said the labour market is continuing to perform strongly, reflecting the resilience of the economy and “success of Government policies supporting job creation”.
Despite softening activity rates, jobs are being added at a healthy rate, the department said. However, the spokesman pointed to shifts in the global economy against a backdrop of instability.
“Since this work was done, we have further good labour market data but the international outlook and environment has changed considerably given recent events.”
He said workforce participation was not just an issue for the Department of Enterprise, pointing out that other Government units are responsible such as education, finance and social protection.
There were further small gains in workforce participation in the last quarter of 2025, he said, growing to 65.8 per cent from 65.5 per cent a year earlier.
