There was gridlock on many of the Republic’s roads on Tuesday as truck drivers and farmers, furious about spiralling fuel prices, conducted their slow-moving convoys and protests.
The Government was the target of much of their ire, with claims that it has not done enough to help them with rising costs caused by the energy crisis sparked by the war in Iran.
The protests were a visible manifestation of the anger that has been growing at the economic impact of a conflict that is just over five weeks old.
But should the war continue much longer, it could well be the first indication that the country is in for a summer of discontent, with resulting implications for Irish politics.
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A sustained period of higher prices at the pumps, aviation fuel shortages leading to travel disruption, increased electricity bills, and indirect impacts such as higher grocery costs all loom if the war does not end soon.
In recent weeks, senior Government figures have called for an end to the conflict, highlighting the human costs. They have also spoken of the economic shock to the rest of the world – including the Republic – should the conflict become prolonged.
Last month, the Coalition announced about €250 million in temporary cost-of-living measures. These will be kept under review and the door has been left open to the possibility of further assistance if necessary.
There are several crunch points on the horizon that will mean pressure on the Government to take further action.
The first is May 1st, when carbon tax is scheduled to rise on home heating oil. While the increase coincides with a period of reduced need for such fuel during the summer, parts of the Opposition – particularly Sinn Féin – will likely step up attacks on the carbon tax regime.
The tax increase on home heating fuel happens at the same time as the planned end of the four-week extension of the fuel allowance for low-income households announced last month.
The Government has been highly resistant to changing course on carbon tax increases, which are set out in legislation and fund climate action measures. A U-turn on the increase would be a big surprise.
The Coalition may face pressure to bring in a further fuel allowance extension.
Separately, a decision will have to be made on whether or not to extend the temporary cuts to excise on petrol and diesel, due to expire on May 31st.
With byelections in Galway West and Dublin Central expected to happen on May 22nd, it is likely to be a topic that comes up on the doors.
Minister for Social Protection Dara Calleary last month said the decision on the excise cuts will not be affected by the two byelections, but will be “aligned with what’s happening nationally and internationally”.
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Regardless of these remarks, a decision in the coming weeks to extend the temporary excise cuts may lead to accusations that it is being done for electoral advantage.
However, if the war is still raging, the Government will also have a legitimate reason to which it can point for extending the cuts.
Continued conflict in the Middle East over the summer – and the economic consequences that result – would set the stage for difficult negotiations between Ministers in advance of October’s budget.
There will be growing pressure to bring in measures like the energy credits introduced during the last cost-of-living crisis as rising electricity bills begin to land on people’s doorsteps.
Even if the war ended soon and the Strait of Hormuz was to fully reopen to oil tankers, the disruption of recent weeks will take some time to undo.
The economic impact of the war is set to dominate Irish politics for months.
