US-laden bombs control the Middle Eastern skies and Donald Trump’s agenda controls global politics. Trump becomes yet another of a growing line of US presidents, who was elected on a platform of America first, and vows not to intervene in foreign conflicts, to do the opposite of that. And another in a growing line who has ignored the international rule of law and the United Nations in pursuit of his goal. There is a long history of the US securing early military ‘wins’ with its superior air power in the Middle East only to be ground down by long, low-level ground wars.
This time it is going to be different, said its defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, in a news conference on Monday. It will be “laser-focused” of short duration and then the US will withdraw.
Four days into the war, Iran’s 86-year-old supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been assassinated and much of Iran’s military capability has been neutralised.
Our lead story this morning reports fears the conflict could spread and deepen and take in more Middle Eastern countries. The Iranian-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah has fired rockets into Israel and Iran has also attacked neighbouring Gulf countries where the US military has bases.
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“Fears of a protracted and complex war deepened as missile strikes were exchanged by countries across the Gulf on Monday, pushing the Middle East into a new chapter of volatility,” writes our US correspondent Keith Duggan.
Iran’s de facto leader, Ali Larijani, denied claims by Trump that Iran was seeking to negotiate with Washington, describing them as “delusional fantasies”.
Ominously, he said. “Iran, unlike the United States, has prepared itself for a long war.”
There will be little support for the Iranian regime, nor the late Khamenei, among European leaders or western powers. His repressive 40-year reign as supreme leader recently saw as many as 40,000 people killed by security forces during protests against the regime.
However, in the event of the US protracting the war there are still divided views on whether or not the stated aim of Trump and of Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu for regime change is possible.
As Vincent Durac of UCD writes in an opinion piece this morning, that regime change “is only likely to come about if there is direct intervention in the country by the US military. There is no indication of planning for this on the part of the US leadership, nor of any willingness to countenance the prolonged and damaging conflict that would ensue from such intervention”.
Government plans for 22,000 Irish citizens in the Gulf region
The Government is now working on a contingency plan for worsening scenarios facing Irish citizens in the Middle East if the war in Iran continues for weeks and draws other Gulf countries into the conflict.
As we report this morning, Minister for Foreign Affairs Helen McEntee and her colleagues are drawing up a plan to bus Irish citizens to Oman, if airports remain closed.
As many as 22,000 Irish citizens live in the region, or are stranded in Gulf countries after holidays, or while transiting from elsewhere. The Irish consular service has been giving advice to hundreds of people, according to McEntee.
She also said charter flights would be explored to bring some home when flights from the region are deemed safe to resume.
Speaking outside Government Buildings on Monday, she also said Irish troops deployed in Lebanon were safe and it was not planned to evacuate them at this time.
The Government has been careful not to condemn the action of the US and Israel, which was done without any reference to the United Nations. The political charge has been made that it is not consistent with its condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Tánaiste Simon Harris on Monday defended the Government’s stance. Also speaking outside Government Buildings, he said “not many tears would be shed for Khamenei.”
He said what happened in Ukraine was in no way comparable to what had occurred against what he called the “despotic regime” in Iran.
Cabinet Preview
Jack Horgan-Jones reports on what is likely to be discussed at this morning’s meeting of the Cabinet.
Helen McEntee will outline a plan to consider invitations for ministers from Northern Ireland and the UK Government to some of the informal council meetings to be held in Ireland during the six-month presidency.
Minister for Housing James Browne is to brief Ministers on the launch of a new “voids” programme designed to lower vacancy rates in local authorities’ social housing stock.
Simon Harris will also outline a plan to Cabinet to appoint two financial literacy ambassadors as part of his plan to introduce a new savings and investment account, as well as an update on insurance reform efforts.
Best Reads
Fintan O’Toole has a fascinating column on the power wielded by Larry Goodman over half a century, to coincide with a RTÉ documentary on the life of the ‘beef baron’.
The number of Dublin commuters cycling to work has increased by 50 per cent over the past two years, writes Olivia Kelly.
Derek Scally in Berlin writes on the German Chancellor’s strong statements of support for the US-Israel strikes on Iran in advance of a visit to the White House.
Playbook
The Cabinet meets this morning.
Dáil
14.00: Leaders’ Questions
15.50: Statement on Seachtain na Gaeilge
18.15: Assisted Decision-Making (Capacity) (Amendment) Bill 2026 – Second Stage
19.15: Private Members’ Business (Sinn Féin): Motion re Gaeltacht Housing
21.15: Questions to Minister for Culture Patrick O’Donovan
Seanad
16.45:International Protection Bill 2026 – Second Stage
18.45: Health Information Bill 2024 – Committee Stage
Committees
11.00: Comhchoiste na Gaeilge
Cainteoirí Gaeilge óga atá ag iarraidh saol Gaelach a chaitheamh agus na seirbhísí poiblí dátheangacha atá de dhíth acu in a leith
11.00: Fisheries
Sea Fisheries Protection Issues and Legislative Framework for the Sea Fisheries Protection Authority
15.00: Justice
Committee Stage Consideration: An Garda Síochána (Recording Devices) (Amendment) Bill 2025 – Gov
15.00: Budgetary Oversight
Medium-Term Fiscal and Structural Plan
15.00: Housing, Heritage
Sustainable Hunting of Wild Birds and Rural Pursuits
