Byelections are not like normal elections, and the upcoming Galway West byelection could be like nothing we have seen before in Irish politics.
The electorate of Connemara and Galway city is perched on a knife edge, with a number of credible directions that could be taken, and no clear front-runner in the race to fill Catherine Connolly’s Dáil seat. The byelection is expected to take place in April or early May.
Conventional wisdom suggests it should be a Fine Gael seat, with Hildegarde Naughton and Seán Kyne securing almost 19 per cent of first preference votes there in the 2024 general election.
But there is nothing conventional about this contest, especially as it represents the first test of the new left-wing alliance and a concerted, on-the-ground movement in Galway city to “vote left and transfer left”.
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Then there is Fianna Fáil, the wounded animal of Galway West following the unsuccessful bid to have celebrity candidate Gráinne Seoige elected in 2024.
The party fell from 23 per cent of the vote in 2020 to just 16 per cent in the last general election. That was thanks in no small part to a very public row with former party member, Cllr Noel Thomas, who was critical of plans for asylum seeker accomodation in a local hotel later subject to an arson attack. He condemned the burning of the building.
Thomas, who secured almost 10 per cent of the first preference vote in 2024, will be joined on the ballot for this election by Independent councillor Thomas Welby, a perennial poll-topper in Connemara and a close ally of Independent Minister of State Noel Grealish.
So the stage is set for something altogether unpredictable, with the only consensus being that if the left manage to stick together, they should have enough to see one of their candidates home.
That “if” will define this byelection and possibly the medium-term future of politics in Ireland.
If the left unite, the most likely benefactor will be Sheila Garrity, Catherine Connolly’s director of elections and heir apparent who announced her candidacy this month, or the Sinn Féin candidate, who has yet to be selected.
According to Garrity, Galway West should be used as a blueprint for how the left should co-ordinate nationally.
“Over the presidential campaign, barriers were able to come down across parties. Our campaign [in Galway] was run by a voluntary group of non-political people,” she says.
“All the parties were represented in our campaign, party members and party officials. We have had some conversations here already with candidates about running a positive and respectful campaign.
“Our common goal for this election is to hold this seat as a left seat, whether it is an Independent left seat or a left party seat. Our next common goal after this is to change the Government.”
In the 2024 general election, the Social Democrats, Labour, the Greens and People Before Profit secured more than 10 per cent of first preference votes in Galway West.
Channelling that support and turning it into transfers will be key if a candidate of the left is to be elected.
Like most such candidates, Labour’s Helen Ogbu is a member of Tonn na Clé, a grassroots community organisation evolved from Catherine Connolly’s election team in Galway.
She says the left will be a “united front” for this election.
“We campaigned for [Connolly]. All the left wing parties came out together and there was an understanding and a collaboration,” she said.
“We want to make sure that this seat will be occupied by a left candidate. What I am saying to people is, give me your number one, and then vote for other left candidates.”
While Fine Gael has yet to formally announce a date for a convention, Senator Seán Kyne, who secured more than 9 per cent of the vote in 2024, is an obvious option.
However, city-based councillor Eddie Hoare, a rising star of the party in Galway, is also expected to put himself forward when nominations open.
Fianna Fáil, still regrouping after the debacle in 2024, is yet to make a decision on a candidate.
It has been suggested by some party insiders that they may run two candidates based at opposite ends of the constituency, and hope for a successful transfer strategy.
Long-serving Fianna Fáil councillor in the Tuam area, Mary Hoade, admits that this is an important election for the party.
“We are looking at it [the number of candidates]. It’s not agreed that it will be one, two or whatever,” she says.
“There is huge input from the local area, the people on the ground, the people who will be campaigning and who know the area best.”
Fianna Fáil’s task is made more difficult by the candidacy of Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas, who left the party in 2023 and secured an impressive 9.5 per cent of the first preference vote in the 2024 general election.
The Moycullen councillor left Fianna Fáil having fallen out with party leader Micheál Martin in relation to an asylum accommodation row at the local Ross Lake Hotel in Connemara.
After it was set on fire, his home was searched by local gardaí. Thomas says he was “branded as being far right” by the media for his opposition to the Government’s policy on asylum seekers and claimed that unspecified “political interference” prompted the search.
“After me coming out, and saying what I said, I was absolutely persecuted for it, my house was raided by the guards, and now the Government is saying the same thing as I was [back then],” he says.
“In this country we have a tiny few people who are far left, and a tiny few who are far right, and they seem to be the ones roaring and shouting and dragging down the country.”
While this byelection could be viewed as a clash between the left and the right, Independent Oughterard councillor Thomas Welby is ploughing a more centrist furrow, and is quietly building support in every corner of the constituency.
As a founding member of Independents Together, a national support group for Independent councillors, Welby can count on the backing of the likes of Noel Grealish, Senator Gerard Craughwell and a variety of councillors from all over the constituency.
“The Independents in Galway are more like a party. But we are independent, we have our own individuality and we are not tied to any organisation. I will have seasoned politicians from as far away as Donegal coming to canvas for me,” he says.
While he rates his own prospects in this election, Welby believes that “if the left come together and are organised, they will win this seat, there is no doubt about that”.
Whomever Sinn Féin chooses to run will also be a strong contender, especially if the “vote left, transfer left” pact materialises. The party has yet to identify a likely candidate or set a date for a convention.
The Green Party has selected former councillor Niall Murphy while the Social Democrats are expected to announce a candidate on February 3rd. Independent city councillor Mike Cubbard is also a likely candidate, while People Before Profit is expected to put someone forward.
