Story of the Week
Well, duh, the presidential election, which is taking place today. A two-horse race plus another horse that has unseated its rider. Even before the race has finished, everybody knows Catherine Connolly is likely to win at a canter.
Bust up
Over the weekend, seasoned observers were saying that Heather Humphreys needed to pivot and focus on her best attributes rather than the negative campaign her team were running. What happened? The team doubled down by releasing an attack video focusing on her work as a barrister representing banks in repossession cases. It continued in that vein all week. Fine Gael Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine Martin Heydon said that there were plenty of negative smears coming in their direction on social media from Connolly supporters, including nasty comments about Humphreys’ religion and family. For the impact it had on Connolly, see next question.
That’s all very well but does any of this affect me?
If you are Catherine Connolly, the answer is no. She faced hundreds of questions during the campaign and did answer some, but certainly not all. Many of them were left hanging. Who organised her trip to Syria? Her work representing banks as a lawyer? If she asked a woman convicted of gun and ammunition possession what she intended to do with them? The list goes on. Did it affect her? Not a whit.
Banana skin
Two potential banana skins in the election, none of which will affect the results. How many spoiled votes? It was 1.2 per cent in 2018. If it’s high, we can say for sure that’s a protest vote. And secondly, how many votes will Jim Gavin get? If it’s 12.5 per cent and over, Fianna Fáil supporters are sending out a message. Deciphering that message is another thing. But at least it will get its money back.
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Winners and losers
Winners: Catherine Connolly and the leaders of all the left parties. Plenty of losers: Heather Humphreys; Jim Gavin; Maria Steen; Gareth Sheridan; Micheál Martin; Simon Harris; and Jack Chambers.
The big read
The Irish Times will be covering the presidential election count live from 8am on Saturday. By 10am the tallies will begin to tell us first indications of what the result might be.
Pat Leahy’s column for Saturday will focus on Catherine Connolly’s seamless campaign and explore the challenges for her of the transition from candidate to First Citizen.
Hear here
On Thursday’s Election Daily podcast, Cormac McQuinn and Jack Horgan Jones join Hugh Linehan to talk about the final day of campaigning before voters go to the polls.
