It is in Ireland's enlightened self-interest to support the Treaty of Nice in tomorrow's referendum. The treaty's principal objective is to facilitate the enlargement of the European Union, by changing its decision-making and representation. Ireland has much in common with the candidate states in terms of history and politics - and much to gain from a larger EU in which they will be fairly accommodated, just as this State was over the last generation. It is far preferable to vote for the treaty's ratification and then press on to address its opportunities and shortcomings in subsequent negotiations, rather than pitch this State into major uncertainty at home and abroad by rejecting it.
The referendum campaign has revealed a very uneven knowledge of these issues and considerable disquiet about their possible consequences. It has also shown a widespread sense of apathy among the electorate, at variance with Ireland's traditional enthusiasm for the EU - based equally on enlightened self-interest. It would be a great pity if the referendum result was to be determined by a minority of the electorate, possibly distorted by the varying degrees of commitment among Yes and No voters.
A good turnout of voters will ensure a more representative result. Those who generally support the treaty, but are unlikely to vote, should make a determined effort to do so. Those contemplating voting No for the first time should think long and hard about whether on balance this is the best course.
The Treaty of Nice rearranges decision-making, weighting of votes and representation in preparation for a 27-member EU. In the negotiations there were complex and rough-edged compromises, as always in this kind of inter-governmental bargaining. While Ireland's overall proportion of votes is reduced, it remains disproportionate compared to much larger states like Germany. Most of the candidate states are small too, sharing such interests with us. Extended use of qualified majority voting will require more agile alliance-building by the Government to protect Irish interests; but that is quite within the capability of a more self-confident generation with so many achievements to its credit. Representation on the Commission remains equitable, even when rotation is introduced. And its strengthened role in the regulation of enhanced co-operation should help ensure, along with several other safeguards, that this does not usher in a two-tier Europe. Ireland will have just as much opportunity to participate in the forthcoming negotiations on the political structure of an enlarged EU as other states, including on the crucial issue of how it should be made more democratically accountable. This campaign has certainly underlined the need for much more thoroughgoing public knowledge and debate. The other major issue aired during the campaign has been whether Ireland's participation in the EU's Rapid Reaction Force jeopardises military neutrality. More heat than light has been cast on the subject by the treaty's opponents. Ireland's involvement is voluntary and the force is designed for reinforcing continental stability rather than power-projection. It is far better to preserve the opportunity to influence these issues from within the EU mainstream, by voting for the admittedly imperfect Treaty of Nice, than risk isolation and marginalisation should Ireland reject it.