The nature of the DUP's mandate

The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, has described next Thursday's meeting with the Democratic Unionist Party, in London, as "enormously …

The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, has described next Thursday's meeting with the Democratic Unionist Party, in London, as "enormously significant".

It will be the first occasion on which the Rev Ian Paisley and the DUP leadership formally discuss political issues concerning Northern Ireland with Government Ministers. But that does not mean there will be a meeting of minds. In fact, the opposite is likely to be the case, given Dr Paisley's determination to renegotiate the Belfast Agreement and to have nothing to do with Sinn Féin while the IRA exists as an armed force.

Last night's contacts between the Taoiseach and representatives of the Ulster Defence Association may, paradoxically, prove more fruitful. The UDA sought Government support on a range of issues, and Mr Ahern offered an understanding approach.

The holding of these two meetings with the Government, however, is a pointer to how much the political landscape in Northern Ireland has changed in recent months. The growing power-blocs represent the extremities of the political spectrum now, and their agreement is needed for any new dispensation to work. The triumph of the DUP, during and since the recent election, represents a step backward in the evolution of a more egalitarian and democratic society. Over the years, Dr Paisley has consistently opposed those reforms that transformed Northern society and eventually led to the Belfast Agreement. The DUP is exposed now and it will be difficult to hold to the repetitious "No".

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The beleaguered leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, Mr David Trimble, believes Dr Paisley perpetrated a fraud upon the electorate when he promised to renegotiate the Belfast Agreement, reinstate the Assembly and exclude Sinn Féin from power. He foresees the failure of the forthcoming review because the DUP will be incapable of compromise. And he anticipates a resurgence in support for the UUP as a consequence.

That scenario is far too simple. The DUP may, indeed, be unwilling to share power with nationalists or make difficult political accommodations. But that does not mean the party will lose support within the unionist community, particularly if the IRA fails to deliver on its long-promised "acts of completion".

The Irish and British governments have emphasised the need for major change by republicans, while insisting the fundamentals of the Belfast Agreement are not open to renegotiation. The British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, told the House of Commons that people who remained attached to active paramilitary organisations could not expect to sit in government. And the Minister for Justice, Mr McDowell, repeated his conviction that criminal IRA activity was being used to fund Sinn Féin.

A formal review of the Belfast Agreement begins next week. The Government enjoys the luxury of seeing what, if anything, the DUP has to offer. The problem for the DUP is that it has not won a mandate for progress. Can it say "Yes" to anything positive?