Stephen Collins: Coronavirus has put the skids under government formation

The potentially devastating impact of coronavirus for public health and the economy has put the skids under Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to agree a programme for government and rotate the office of Taoiseach between them. Until early this week the parties had been inching towards formal talks at a snail’s pace but the time for political manoeuvring is over.

The Taoiseach’s announcement in Washington of a range of dramatic measures which will impact on the lives of every citizen has left him and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin with no excuse to engage in any further delay in forming a government that has the capacity to lead the country through a time of unprecedented crisis.

Meetings between the two men earlier in the week have paved the way for serious talks and the Covid-19 emergency has given them added urgency. While there has been no formal agreement on the question of rotating the Taoiseach’s office it appears that both parties now accept that it is the only way they can come together to share power.

The message was clear. The parties will rotate the office of Taoiseach

It has taken the parties a month to get to this point for a number of reasons. For a start both were shocked to the core by the election result. Fianna Fáil expected to win seats rather than lose them while the scale of the loss experienced by Fine Gael was far worse than expected. To put the Fine Gael performance in context, the party has lost 41 seats since its historic high of 76 in 2011. The scale of the fall has stunned the membership and prompted a serious bout of internal criticism. It led some TDs to conclude that a third term in office could see the party shrink to a dangerously low level.

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Leo Varadkar reflected that mood with his proclamation that Fine Gael was preparing itself for Opposition. Whether he really meant it or not is debatable but he had a job persuading his party that remaining in government is the right move. Party sources say that he would not have been able to sell it to his members if Micheál Martin was going to occupy the Taoiseach’s office for the Government’s term.

On the Fianna Fáil side there was an equally strong view in the initial stages that, as the party had facilitated Fine Gael in holding the office of Taoiseach for the past four years in the confidence-and-supply arrangement, it was now time for reciprocation. It seemed as if the issue could become a real stumbling block until the scale of the Covid-19 threat became apparent.

Formal talks

The logjam was broken when Varadkar and Martin met on Tuesday. In a statement afterwards announcing the beginning of formal talks Fianna Fáil said that both parties would “enter the talks as equal partners determined to develop proposals which will serve the interests of the people of Ireland”. The message was clear. The parties will rotate the office of Taoiseach and, in all likelihood, Mr Martin will take the post for the first half of the government’s life with Varadkar taking the second period.

While this will be something new in Irish politics, the idea of a rotating Taoiseach has been around for a long time. Back in 1989 when Charles Haughey failed to win an overall majority Fine Gael leader Alan Dukes proposed that they should form a coalition and rotate the office between them. Haughey rejected the idea out of hand, as not only had Fianna Fáil never before participated in coalition, but there was a disparity of 77 seats to 55 in the party strengths. Haughey instead opted to do a coalition deal with the Progressive Democrats with no question of rotating the Taoiseach’s office.

The rotating option was resurrected by Enda Kenny after the 2016 election stalemate. This time the numbers were much closer with Fine Gael having 50 seats and Fianna Fáil 44. Martin rejected the offer and opted instead for confidence-and-supply on the basis that a formal coalition would leave Sinn Féin leading the Opposition.

One way or another decisions will have to be made, and quickly. Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures

This time around the two badly weakened parties are of almost equal strength and it makes sense to come together, particularly in light of the health crisis. They would both like to involve the Green Party and a number of Independents in the government to give it a secure majority and also the greatest level of credibility.

The proposal by the Greens that there should be a national government for three months has been rejected by both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. The proposal raises questions about whether the Greens are serious about participating in government at all and it makes it all the more imperative that a group of Independents come together to offer an alternative route to government.

All of the parties have to get approval from their members for any coalition arrangement and it is going to be impossible to hold delegate conferences in light of the Taoiseach’s announcement. It should not be impossible to find an alternative method of consultation, through the post or the internet, but one way or another decisions will have to be made, and quickly. Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures.