AS USUAL Drapier was right. Only three weeks ago, he warned in this column that things were going so well for the Government that it was time to watch out. As anyone with any experience in here would tell you, that's when things are most likely to go wrong - and in the most unexpected ways. Ask Ivan Yates or Michael Noonan.
Drapier is always amused when he sees pundits writing scenarios for six or 12 months hence - and usually written with knowing certainty. The truth is that in recent years anybody who would predict what will be dominating our attention in two or three weeks will probably get it wrong. Recent experience has told us that it is the unexpected rather than the expected which inevitably happens - and usually with a vengeance.
And so it was this week. As Drapier said last week, Michael Noonan was never going to win on the hepatitis C issue, but he was at least in sight of shore when he made his mistake on Wednesday. And a big mistake it was as, no doubt, he will be told from all quarters this weekend. In fact it's going to be open season on Michael this weekend.
Why he did it Drapier does not know, but it was no secret in here that Noonan had long suspected that much of the momentum was lawyer-driven, with rich pickings in prospect, and he was determined not to provide a rerun of the beef tribunal. He may have been right or he may have been wrong, but the tragedy from his point of view is that he went public when a few more days of restraint would have seen all the issues transferred to Mr Thomas Finlay.
Drapier is never one for dumping on his colleagues and he certainly has no intention of dumping on Michael Noonan this weekend. There will be enough people doing that. In his view, Michael Noonan is one of the very best Ministers of any government of recent years. He is a politician of real substance and will survive this present setback.
Drapier is long enough around to know that the real test of character in here is best seen in adversity. Drapier remembers how well Albert Reynolds handled himself on his last day as Taoiseach when, in appallingly difficult personal circumstances, he performed with style and dignity. Nor will he ever forget Charlie Haughey's stoic performance when Albert's people took him out.
Noonan has been at the receiving end of a pretty sustained assault for weeks now, some of it highly personal, and he has taken it on the chin. His apology was prompt and full and he made no attempt to blame anybody, but himself.
Joe O'Toole made the point in the Seanad on Thursday that the debate in the Lower House had reflected little credit on anyone because of the partisan and -party political nature in which it was conducted. Drapier agrees and by far the best discussion on the issue took place in the Seanad on Thursday afternoon, with what Drapier regards as the most outstanding contribution of the entire debate in either House coming from Mary Henry.
There were also excellent contributions from Madeleine Taylor Quinn, Jan O'Sullivan and John Dardis. Not for the first time, the calmer atmosphere in the Upper House generated a debate that was informed and passionate, but happily lacking the stridency of some of the Dail contributions.
THE matter is now with Thomas Finlay and in Drapier's view it is in good hands. Clearly lessons have been learned from the beef tribunal with the new specific terms of reference and, in particular, with the capacity to come back to the Oireachtas alter 20 days of oral hearings to have the terms of reference amended should that be necessary.
Drapier also hopes that there will be no repeat of the lawyers' cash bonanza that will forever stand to the shame of the beef tribunal.
This new tribunal starts with much material already available from Miriam Hederman O'Brien's report and with over 5,000 documents already discovered from court cases. What this means is that considerable footwork has already been done before the tribunal starts and Drapier hopes for everyone's sake that this time we get the truth, the full truth and then let the chips fall where they may.
Jim Mitchell's decision to pack in politics came as a shock, but not as a surprise. It's been an open secret for some time that this was on the cards, but now that the decision is finally made it will be hard to think of the place without Jim's ebullient and cheerful presence.
When it came to politics, Jim Mitchell was the ultimate professional. His capacity for organisation and for constituency service is unrivalled and he got and gave great loyalty to the people he, represented. He is also a very serious issues politician and some of his comments on the new committee system and the isolation of the Dail which he made recently to the Institute of Fiscal Studies bear serious reflection.
He was also particularly good as chairman of the Dail's oldest committee, that of public accounts, updating its technology, extending its scope and attempting to give it some real teeth.
Drapier understands Jim's decision even if he regrets it because he sees it as a serious loss to Irish politics. It was on the cards when Jim was not in John Bruton's Cabinet that he might seriously consider his position and that apparently is what he did.
For someone of his ability and experience, the world of consultancy offers very lucrative opportunities and after 20 years of branch meetings, constituency rows, endless fund-raising, late nights and being at everybody's beck and call, the glamour of politics can wear thin, especially when contrasted with the calm of private life.
One way or other Drapier - wishes Jim well.
Finally this week on the North. Drapier noted Bill Flynn and his people from the National Committee on American Foreign Policies were back in the North trying to broker some sense into the Provos and give them a clear and unequivocal sense of the unacceptability of their tactics. If ever we do get a permanent peace, Bill Flynn will be Drapier's candidate for a Nobel Peace Prize, such has been his selfless commitment.
Drapier was not greatly heartened by some of the vibes he picked up, especially the sense that the so-called army council of the IRA is quite happy with things as they are and is impervious to the growing pressures for a ceasefire.
If that is so then the political mood this weekend is as gloomy as the weather we have been promised.