Noel Whelan: Prospect of united Ireland is no longer fanciful

We need to talk about Irish unity. We have been avoiding the conversation in the Republic for too long. The ground has shifted quite dramatically on the question in recent years. Last week's Assembly Elections in Northern Ireland was a reflection of that new reality. The results of that election should now also serve as a lightbulb moment for nationalism south of the border.

In recent times, mainstream southern politics dared not to speak of Irish unity for fear that to do so would unsettle unionism at delicate moments in the peace process or would serve to boost Sinn Féin in the Republic.

Since partition, many southern politicians have touted and exploited the cause of Irish unity for political mobilisation and recruitment purposes. In the late 1940s and early 1950s the anti-partition campaign filled large halls at home and abroad for Éamon de Valera. In the early 1980s throwaway lines from Charles Haughey about Northern Ireland being "a failed political entity" brought thousands to their feet at Fianna Fáil ardfheiseanna in the RDS.

Much of the rhetoric of Irish unity was then aspirational guff. Sinn Féin could be accused of the same with their current social media strategy and Border poll campaign. The difference now, however, is that the prospect of Irish unity is no longer fanciful.

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It has long been apparent that assuming tribal voting patterns continue as they have historically, and demographic patterns continue into the future along current trends, then at some point in the future about 20 years or so away, there would be a nationalist adult majority in Northern Ireland.

The 1998 Belfast Agreement provided for a scenario where such a majority might emerge. The agreement expressly requires the secretary of state to hold a Border poll "if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."

Northern nationalists have cause now to fear being marooned economically and politically behind a hard Border

That scenario is now ahead of schedule. A clear majority for Irish unity is still some time off, but not as far off as might have been thought. While Unionist sentiment against a united Ireland is stronger than nationalist sentiment in favour of it, that will change as nationalists begin to see a united Ireland as a realistic possibility rather than a vague aspiration.

Marooned economically

On this issue, as on so many others, Brexit changes everything. Northern nationalists have cause now to fear being marooned economically and politically behind a hard Border and living in a polity where greater sovereignty over their lives is restored to British institutions. There is now a real risk that protections which they enjoy under European law and under the Belfast Agreement will be lost.

Brexit could mean, for example, that implementing the outcome of any Border poll would be impeded unless the post-Brexit agreements ensure that Northern Ireland – if unified with the Republic – would automatically be admitted to the European Union. The Spanish, concerned about setting precedents which might assist separatist movements in Catalonia, are likely to oppose such a provision emerging from the Brexit negotiations.

Although sullied by those who engaged in a sectarian campaign of violence during the Troubles, the cause of Irish unity is a legitimate one which most of us believe in

The most striking feature about last week's Northern Ireland Assembly elections was the fact that nationalist voters were so highly mobilised. Arlene Foster did that. Her remarks disparaging the Irish language and depicting nationalists as crocodiles who, if fed concessions, would only come back for more became the determinative moment of the campaign.

Echo chamber

The tragic thing is that Foster didn’t even realise she had done wrong. She still doesn’t. In the echo chamber of DUP politics she and her campaign strategists felt her intransience played well to her own community. They failed to appreciate the mobilising impact it had on the nationalist side.

The sense of insecurity which the demographic realities have engendered, and the sense of confusion felt as Brexit approaches, explains the hard line rhetoric from unionist leaders recently. There is little generosity from the Democratic Unionist Party in particular these days – with the striking exception of Ian Paisley jnr.

Although sullied by those who engaged in a sectarian campaign of violence during the Troubles, the cause of Irish unity is a legitimate one which most of us believe in. All nationalists, except dissident republicans, have now signed up to the principle of achieving that unity by consent. We should be free to engage in frank debate about our aspiration without being accused of spooking unionists. They are spooked now anyway. In time, when they realise their true predicament, more moderate leadership will emerge on the unionist side.

Meanwhile, nationalist parties North and South should begin to explore and design constitutional and legal frameworks for the unity scenario. Collectively we can do so in a way which rather than terrifying unionists reassures enough of them that when that moment comes, as it must, their rights and identity will be respected.