HAZARDS ON THE PATH TO PEACE

Those who dared to hope that an inclusive way forward may yet be found for the peace process now face a hazardous period

Those who dared to hope that an inclusive way forward may yet be found for the peace process now face a hazardous period. The next two weeks may determine whether sufficient cohesion can be built among the political parties to allow the Northern elections to proceed, while at the same time convincing the Provisionals to rejoin the process and to stay their hands from further violence.

There are ominous differences of emphasis and interpretation between the two governments in relation to the proposed electoral process and the assembly which will follow from it. The Secretary of State, Sir Patrick Mayhew, says the proposals, published in yesterday's editions of this newspaper are consultative. The Taoiseach says they will not be departed from. But since there are choices within the document, either interpretation can be correct.

That said, there are seriously divergent views on the electoral system to be applied. In one formulation there is the danger of unionist withdrawal. In another, there is the possibility of rejection by both SDLP and Sinn Fein. Both governments will need to be alive to the constant danger of losing such political impetus as still exists.

The acceptability or otherwise of whatever emerges as the preferred model for the elections will also undoubtedly influence the mood among delegates to the Sinn Fein Ardfheis, scheduled for the coming weekend. The ardfheis, at the very least, may give a reliable insight into the organisation's thinking and future direction.

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It is still not clear how much support exists for the stance of Mr Gerry Adams and some of his senior colleagues. But anything less than a strong endorsement of his leadership will bode ill for the movement's ability or willingness to put aside its militaristic instincts and return to the political path. The very real threat of more IRA violence continues to cast its shadow.

Even well informed analysts are not certain what to make of the fact that apart from a small device in west London (which mercifully caused no casualties) there have been no further incidents since the blast on the bus in the Aldwych. Perhaps police and security activity has rendered the IRA units inoperative. But more likely, it seems, the IRA is operating a de facto ceasefire. Or at least there may be a temporary hiatus while it monitors political developments.

There should be no complacency. And there should be no relaxation of political and moral pressure on the IRA to reinstitute its ceasefire beyond yea or nea. Thankfully, the loyalist paramilitaries have refrained from violence and seem intent on avoiding a slide into open sectarian warfare.

In part, their thinking has apparently been influenced by the tough stand of the Taoiseach and the Government in cutting off ministerial contact and making it clear beyond doubt that there can be no role in the democratic process for those whose associates remain open to the use of violence. The Taoiseach reiterated that stance again in the United States during the week and is supported unequivocally both by the US administration and by Ireland's influential friends in Washington. These may be difficult days for the political process but it has some skilled champions and many powerful supporters. Those who demand a true, unbroken peace on this island can still prevail.