The news that the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) most senior general Zhang Youxia is under investigation has triggered a frenzy of speculation outside China about what it means for Xi Jinping, the Communist Party and the future of Taiwan.
Liu Zhenli, another general on the Central Military Commission (CMC) is also under investigation so there are now only two people left on the country’s top military body, Xi and Zhang Shengmin, the disciplinary chief of the PLA.
The moves are the latest in a sweeping purge of the upper echelons of China’s military that has seen dozens of senior officers and defence industry executives placed under investigation since 2023. At a meeting last year of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, it appeared that two-thirds of the 44 uniformed officers appointed to the body in 2022 had been purged or were missing.
Zhang was long regarded as untouchable, not least because of the way his biography intertwined with Xi’s, as their fathers served alongside one another under Mao Zedong in China’s civil war. He was one of the few senior PLA figures with combat experience, a veteran of the campaign against Vietnam in the late 1970s, the last time China fought a war.
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The announcement last Saturday that Zhang was under investigation led some western analysts to suggest that he had been plotting a coup against Xi’s leadership. The Wall Street Journal reported that he was suspected of selling nuclear secrets to the United States, and others said he was at the head of a faction in the military that had become so powerful that it threatened Xi’s dominance over the party and the state.
It is all but impossible to evaluate or to verify such rumours because those at the top of the Chinese system do not generally leak or brief off the record, not least because of the likely consequences of getting caught doing so. The best starting point for understanding what is happening behind the scenes often turns out to be in the official, public statements and commentary in the state-controlled media.
The defence ministry said that Zhang and Liu were under investigation for “serious discipline violations and violations of the law”, which usually means corruption. Zhang is a former director of the department that oversaw new weapons and systems procurement, a position with ample opportunity for graft.
A lengthy editorial in the PLA Daily on Sunday said the investigation showed that the party’s anti-corruption drive knows no limits and showed zero tolerance. But it made clear that Zhang and Liu’s alleged wrongdoing went beyond simple corruption and represented a challenge to Xi’s authority as chairman of the CMC.
“They have seriously trampled upon and undermined the CMC chairman responsibility system, seriously fuelled political and corruption issues that affect the party’s absolute leadership over the military and endanger the party’s ruling foundation, seriously affected the image and prestige of the CMC leadership team, and seriously impacted the political and ideological foundation of the unity and forge-ahead spirit of all officers and soldiers,” it said.
The removal of the most senior figures in the PLA (the second-most senior uniformed officer He Weidong was purged last year) must have an impact on the operational effectiveness of the military, at least in the short term. But it may not make much difference to Beijing’s calculations on Taiwan, which do not appear to include an imminent invasion of the self-governing island.
Political developments in Taiwan, where president William Lai is under pressure from the more Beijing-friendly opposition, could have a greater influence. And much will depend on the posture of the Trump administration, which is currently playing down Taiwan as an issue as it seeks to improve relations with Beijing.
