It was always probable that the final obstacle for nationalists and republicans in Northern Ireland coming to terms with a new order would be policing. And it is rapidly coming to the point at which they have to buy into the new structures provided for in the Police Act or accept the risk that much of what has been put in place over two years may come tumbling down.
The Taoiseach and the Prime Minister have indicated that it is necessary for all parties to "get across the line" in this phase of the peace process if they are not to be overtaken by the pace of events. Mr Ahern has been very specific, stating in the Dail on Tuesday that it would have to be done in a week. It is not at all clear why this should be so. But common sense dictates that with the days ticking down to a general election in the United Kingdom, Mr Blair and his government will be preoccupied with other matters very shortly.
There is yet no clear indication of any forward movement in the pan-nationalist stance on the proposed police reforms which have followed from the Patten report. It is true that aspects of Patten have been modified and diluted. But any fair observer would have to acknowledge that the thrust of its intent is well reflected in what is now proposed. A police service which is reflective of both traditions, with a high level of community accountability, with strict and impartial overview arrangements is now on offer. But Sinn Fein declares itself unconvinced. The SDLP is watchful of losing its electoral advantage. Dublin reserves its position.
There are other, related, matters which have to be dealt with in order to ensure a return to business-as-usual in the Executive and the other institutions. The IRA must show real progress on decommissioning of weapons. The security authorities must advance the process of demilitarisation in nationalist areas, notably in South Armagh. Informed sources suggest that quid pro quo moves are possible here. But those same sources express themselves as doubting whether the circle can be squared on policing. Mr Blair and the new Northern Ireland Secretary, Dr Reid, believe they can go no further. Sinn Fein and the SDLP say it is not enough. Some flexibility may yet exist from the British government side, for example, in regard to Sinn Fein's demand for a complete ban on plastic bullets - a requirement which was not made explicit by Patten. Commitments may also be hardened up on inquiries into various murders. But unless the SDLP and Sinn Fein are willing to endorse recruitment to the Police Service of Northern Ireland very shortly and to work the new structures, it is likely that the Agreement will go into review.
Sinn Fein may feel relatively sanguine about this. The party's analysis appears to be that it is in a win-win situation and that if it plays tough now it will probably do better when dialogue is resumed - whenever that may be. But that may not be the case at this point. They could find that at the end of a review period there is no David Trimble and no middleground unionist bloc with which to do business in the Executive or the Assembly. And with large-scale resignations of one-time RUC officers, they could very possibly find that the civil policing of Northern Ireland has deteriorated to the point that an acute security situation has once again emerged. The version of Patten which is now on offer is not perfect - although it has received the broad endorsement of its eponymous author. But there is enough to give policing in Northern Ireland the new beginning it so badly needs. Nationalists and republicans should do the right thing by their own people and go for it.