The year’s most consequential European election takes place on Sunday when Hungarians go to the polls after a fractious and controversial campaign whose outcome will have implications far beyond the borders of the central European state.
For the first time in well over a decade, there is a real prospect of authoritarian prime minister Viktor Orbán losing his grip on power. Opinion polls show the opposition Tisza party led by Péter Magyar leading Orbán’s Fidesz by double digits among decided voters. However, a substantial number of voters remain undecided. And after 16 years of Orbán’s “illiberal democracy”, gerrymandering and voter manipulation mean the outcome is far from certain.
The campaign itself has been marked by accusations of election interference and controversies over leaked recordings of high-level political conversations. Orbán’s close ties to Vladimir Putin have long been evident, but a leaked call between Hungary’s foreign minister and his Russian counterpart, apparently showing detailed co-ordination on EU sanctions policy, shocked even seasoned observers. The Trump administration, meanwhile, has made its backing for the current government unmistakable, with JD Vance this week visiting Budapest, where he attacked “Brussels bureaucrats” for allegedly interfering in Hungarian democracy. The irony of a serving American vice-president campaigning at a foreign election rally appeared lost on him.
Brussels would certainly be relieved to see the back of Orbán, whose obstructionist tactics have paralysed EU policymaking. Orbán has blocked a €90 billion EU loan to Kyiv, having previously signalled he would not oppose it. Without that funding, Ukraine faces a serious shortfall in the months ahead.
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Orbán’s Hungary has become a model for strongman leaders worldwide. Yet this election is more likely to be decided by domestic concerns. Voters appear to have had enough of the corruption and mismanagement of Fidesz, and are willing to take a chance on Magyar, a former Fidesz insider who broke with the party just two years ago.
What kind of leader Magyar would prove remains uncertain. Reservations about his personality and management style exist even among his own allies. What is undeniable is that he has succeeded in uniting Hungary’s fragmented opposition in a way no predecessor managed. For many inside and outside the country, that is sufficient.
Should Orbán be defeated on Sunday, it will be the most significant setback for the European populist right in years, a blow to Trumpism and Russian aggression in Ukraine, and a profound relief to the overwhelming majority of EU governments. If it happens, it will not be a moment too soon.
