If we needed any reminder of the lopsided nature of Ireland’s economic progress during the last decade, we got one this week from the international press. In the space of eight days the Irish economic model has been put under the spotlight in The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, Le Monde, The New York Times and the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
The interest of these news organisations in Ireland was piqued by the general election but in truth the critiques they offered could have been made at any stage over the last few years. There is a striking if of necessity high-level consensus evidenced in these relatively objective assessments; the Irish are rich, but they are not happy. They are also riding their luck hard.
The source of Ireland’s wealth is seen, to a greater or lesser degree, as a combination of EU membership and tax-driven foreign direct investment. Other, more nuanced factors such as the country’s relatively young, educated English-speaking workforce, are hardy mentioned. The reasons for the national disgruntlement are also the subject of broad agreement – the housing shortage, inadequate healthcare, poor infrastructure and growing concern around immigration. The children’s hospital debacle comes in for a special mention as does the Dáil’s no-expense-spared bike shed.
There is also widespread agreement that notwithstanding the various national wealth funds that have been established, Ireland will be in serious trouble should anything happen to disrupt the flow of corporation tax from large US corporations. The tariff and tax policies promised by the incoming Trump administration in the United States are, not surprisingly, seen as a risk.
It is worth reminding ourselves that international media outlets are the lens through which others see us. The way that they choose to frame contemporary Ireland will have an impact in Washington, London, Paris and Berlin that will play out over the coming years.
The impression that now prevails that Ireland has to a certain extent mismanaged its good fortune is not a flattering one, but the State is far from alone in struggling to grapple with issues such as housing and migration. Ireland’s now clearly visible success is likely to bring a new set of expectations and pressure from other countries, particularly in areas such as defence, taxation and the future shape of EU budgets.
In truth there is not much daylight between the views of the international media and domestic commentators about the source of Ireland’s wealth and the potential threats. Both draw from the same small pool of local and international expertise. What is perhaps striking is that a key issue that has been identified in both national and international commentary – the risks facing the public finances – got so little real attention during the general election campaign.